e.g. if there's a pill you can take that lets you sleep for only 6 hours instead of 8 hours each night and feel just as rested. It must work on at least 50% of the population.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (10 traders, as of Feb 10, 2026).

Will an intervention be found by 2045 that reduces the amount of sleep needed in order to function by at least 25%?

Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?

12% chance

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

5% chance

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

21% chance

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

85% chance

Will humans still need sleep at the beginning of 2045?

88% chance

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

3.1

Will a technology exist by 2030 that will cure insomnia?

34% chance

Will an orexin antagonist be the best long term sleeping drug in 2030

55% chance

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

37% chance

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

49% chance

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