Will an orexin antagonist be the best long term sleeping drug in 2030 | Manifold

Will an orexin antagonist be the best long term sleeping drug in 2030

5

Ṁ90Ṁ41

2030

55%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Unlikely to be best selling due to pricing and generic alternatives. Would resolve yes if there is a relatively recent meta analysis showing one of the orexin targeting drugs being the best overall vs competition (not just placebo). Should be graded on a multitude of factors for long term use including tolerance, effectiveness and side effects.

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