If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?
17
1kṀ4012028
9%
chance
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1W
1M
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If there are no confirmed detonations by the end of 2027, this market resolves N/A. If there's at least one detonation of greater than 50 megatons, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
In the event of uncertainty as to the exact yield, the exact bar I will use is "there's at least a 50% chance that the yield was greater than that of the Tsar Bomba". If necessary I'll leave the market unresolved for a few weeks/months until a consensus is reached.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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