If someone runs a script to check everyone, I'll resolve to the result of that script. (Adding an answer as necessary.) If not, I'll check the calibration graphs of everyone who's been submitted as an answer and resolve to the highest. If multiple people are tied, I will wait until the tie is broken and then resolve to that person.
Bots are ignored. Obvious manipulation is ignored. Anyone with less than 20 binary markets bet in and resolved is ignored. If Manifold changes how calibration is calculated, I'll use the old version if it's easily available, and the new version if not.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ740 | |
| 2 | Ṁ225 | |
| 3 | Ṁ132 | |
| 4 | Ṁ112 | |
| 5 | Ṁ63 |
People are also trading
I still can't view the graphs; please go upvote this bug report on Discord: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1170532245497458708
I heard market making and strategic trading hurts your calibration. Therefore a near perfect calibration means you're not using all the tools in the kit and you are not as great of a trader as you could be!
(this comment has nothing to do with the fact that the end of year resolutions dropped my calibration from -0.05 to -1.37)
@Agh that can’t be real. i’ve made a ton of markets and my callibration has been improving (though it seems like I’m always wrong about how Manifold works).
why would making markets affect a trading-based score?
@IsaacKing I don't know, haven't seen anyone else with 0 but I haven't run a script or anything, personally
@IsaacKing won't load for me either for NamesAreHard, firstuserhere, Joshua or NicoDelon. Akzzz123 and bogusuers are getting me 404, pretty sure Akzzz123 deleted his account so bogusuers probably did as well. for the other options, they aren't at -0.00 calibration
@NicoDelon We all know you've got the best calibration. It's just that this is such a noisy metric. I just went fom -0.04 to -0.22 and I have no idea why.
@BTE Here: pfe.io/top-calibrations.csv. Looks like the second one should be disqualified for obvious manipulation. Third in the list is a bot, leaving 6. But the top one seems pretty legit to me.
@ducat looks like you're new to the site, I suggest simply not making any trades until this market resolves!
@Joshua He is currently ineligible and probably won't reach 20 resolved markets at the end of 2023.
EDIT: I guess it's unfortunate this info is only in comments and wasn't updated in the description. And the description says 20 markets bet in.
@Joshua Haha, thanks for pointing it out but I'm afraid I'm ineligible going by https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/who-will-be-the-bestcalibrated-pers#6GPWwaD02GhwLw82eHEx. I'm only at 7/20 resolved Y/N markets bet on.