Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?
10
92
แน€1k
2030
27%
chance

Things that would count as "very cool":

Becoming a billionaire/founding a billion $ company.

Winning a noble prize.

Becoming a US senator or governor.

Assassinating vladimir Putin.

Becoming president of any country (if the president actually has power).

Becoming CEO of a company with a market cap of over 100 Billion.

Becoming a federal minister of germany (there are 14 in total).

Becoming a mayor of one of the top 15 largest US cities.

Things that wouldn't count

Clearly evil things:

Killing 50 civilians.

Doing an SBF (He would have counted until the fraud came out).

Blowing up a building.

Killing Donald Trump.

Things that are just not impressive enough:

Becoming a multi millionaire.

Becoming a member of the German parlament (one out of 736 members).

Becoming mayor of dundee.

The person has to be an active user of manifold. They have to have made at least 50 trades and written 20 comments. (if they just join because they know they would be getting their Nobel prize next week and quickly make 50 trades it woludn't count, they really have to have been an active manifold user already before).

I will answer any questions.
All dollars in 2023 dollars.

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