In what year will mainstream personal computers first be advertised as "quantum"?
Mini
9
Ṁ1252100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
24%
1%
2030
5%
2060
1.1%
2025
0.2%
2020
2%
2020
1.1%
2022
9%
2023
44%
2050
13%
2049
Resolves based on the marketing for relatively inexpensive computers targeted at non-technical users. They don't have to actually *be* quantum computers, it could just be marketing nonsense. A single instance is not sufficient to resolve this market, it needs to a consistent feature of marketing by a large company comparable to what Apple or Microsoft is today.
Answers should be a year number, such as "2030". If multiple people submit answers for the same year and that year ends up winning, I'll choose the answer that was submitted first.
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Hmm, interesting. I think those count as isolated instances, not mainstream enough for me to resolve. Still, it shows that this could happen much sooner than I expected.
I wonder if I should only be counting things that seem like they're actually trying to make people think there's something quantum going on (like all the quantum annealing hype that got presented as true quantum computing), and exclude obvious buzzword titles like those.
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2039
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Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
20% chance
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
2028
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
68% chance
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74% chance
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35% chance
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34% chance
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23% chance
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