In what year will mainstream personal computers first be advertised as "quantum"?
Basic
9
Ṁ1252100
24%
1%
2030
5%
2060
1.1%
2025
0.2%
2020
2%
2020
1.1%
2022
9%
2023
44%
2050
13%
2049
Resolves based on the marketing for relatively inexpensive computers targeted at non-technical users. They don't have to actually *be* quantum computers, it could just be marketing nonsense. A single instance is not sufficient to resolve this market, it needs to a consistent feature of marketing by a large company comparable to what Apple or Microsoft is today.
Answers should be a year number, such as "2030". If multiple people submit answers for the same year and that year ends up winning, I'll choose the answer that was submitted first.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Hmm, interesting. I think those count as isolated instances, not mainstream enough for me to resolve. Still, it shows that this could happen much sooner than I expected.
I wonder if I should only be counting things that seem like they're actually trying to make people think there's something quantum going on (like all the quantum annealing hype that got presented as true quantum computing), and exclude obvious buzzword titles like those.
Related questions
Related questions
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
25% chance
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2030
When will we get personal quantum computers? 🖥️
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
2028
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
69% chance
Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade
59% chance
How many research groups will have claimed to have achieved a "quantum advantage" on quantum computers by end 2024?
Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?
44% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
34% chance
When will quantum computers become affordable?