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Resolves to 50 bps (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html)

Questions for next meeting (Feb 2023):

Someone should make a market for the rate change in Feb 2023...

@MattBrooks

Those that are long, do you think that the next CPI will be so devastating that they will change their minds?

@MP I think people underestimate Fed desire to get a handle on the issue

@KevinBurke Fed already said it's time to slow down. 50bps is still pretty significant and it's just 45 days. They will want to be more measured. Even though they are willing to overtighting, they don't want to.

After the CPI, if it isn't super hot, this market should trade at a mid single digit

@MP sure, I just think 11% is too low of a probability

Related market

Another, more liquid market is trading at 85% no https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

I expect so. Their political incentives are strongest for hitting inflation - Fed mandate, plus the administration would be pressuring them in that direction as well. The consequences for debt service are longer term, and presumably the blue team expects to be able to do some brinkmanship with it (or blame the mess on the red team if they lose the midterms).

Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 75 bps (0.75%) in December?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition