resolved Dec 7

US 2022 Elections 2022 Georgia Runoffs Polymarket

Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia?

Resolved

YES

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Jack	Ṁ1,942
2	Joshua	Ṁ799
3	jamie	Ṁ680
4	𝕄𝕀𝕊𝕊 𝕊𝕌𝕄𝕄𝔼ℝ	Ṁ553
5	David Davidson	Ṁ384

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is predicting NO at 100%

I didn't even remember betting on this till I suddenly recalled I was arbing on another market.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Warnock wins - called by AP: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-walker-warnock-runoff-3d4e4d1ab1760792454e1cbd618ce332

is predicting NO at 84%

https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-georgia is currently at 93%

is predicting NO at 71%

Does this market becomes less likely to resolve to YES if Dems win in both Nevada and Georgia?

is predicting YES at 71%

@MP Hmm. You might have a point - it's possible the Dems might get a little complacent if they have the Senate locked down.

is predicting NO at 71%

@NcyRocks That would require more trust in Sinema than I think they would want to extend (i.e. she might quite the party and refuse to caucus with them or something).

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Related market:

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Fulton County numbers seem good

bought Ṁ30 of NO

This seems to be one of the few midterm markets where 538 is bearish on the Democrat, a good opportunity to diversify if you are a Nate Silver believer.

"Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia?"

Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/

bought Ṁ20 of NO

(per FiveThirtyEight forecast)

bought Ṁ20,000 YES from 99.7% to 99.8%

bought Ṁ10,000 YES from 99.5% to 99.7%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.5%

sold Ṁ4 NO at 99.5%

sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.5%

sold Ṁ202 YES at 99.5%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 99.6% to 99.5%

sold Ṁ357 YES at 99.6%

bought Ṁ100 YES at 99.6%

sold Ṁ1 NO from 99.5% to 99.6%

sold Ṁ222 YES from 99.6% to 99.5%

bought Ṁ10,000 YES from 99.3% to 99.6%

created limit order for Ṁ300 YES at 99.0%

sold Ṁ20 NO from 99.2% to 99.3%

sold Ṁ222 YES at 99.2%

bought Ṁ10,000 YES from 98.3% to 99.2%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 98.3%

sold Ṁ99 YES at 99.0%

sold Ṁ9,927 YES from 99.4% to 99.0%

created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 71%

created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 80%

sold Ṁ200 NO from 98% to 99.4%

created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 80% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ3,900/Ṁ3,900 YES at 98%

filled limit order Ṁ10,000/Ṁ10,000 YES at 97%

bought Ṁ481 YES from 68% to 74%

bought Ṁ292 YES from 64% to 68%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 64%

bought Ṁ1,835 NO from 98.3% to 62%

sold Ṁ1,144 YES from 98.5% to 98.3%

bought Ṁ100 YES at 98.5%

sold Ṁ2,983 YES from 98.8% to 98.5%

filled limit order Ṁ5,000/Ṁ5,000 YES at 98.8%

sold Ṁ184 YES from 98.2% to 98.1%

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 98% to 98.2%

filled limit order Ṁ2,800/Ṁ2,800 YES at 98%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 98% to 97%

bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 97% to 98%

bought Ṁ3,000 YES from 96% to 97%

bought Ṁ100 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

Arbitrage BotBot

bought Ṁ17 NO at 96%

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 95% to 96%