Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033?
Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033?
11
1kṀ7612034
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The scale of the fraud needs to be significant and have credible evidence that chairman Buffett or vice-chairman Munger were doing the fraud.
I will consider the scale (significative versus Berkshire Hathaway massive book value), how the financial media chooses to name it, and decisions by regulators lile the SEC.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
3% chance
Will Warren Buffett cease to be CEO of Berkshire Hathaway before 2030?
84% chance
Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2030?
22% chance
Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2035?
10% chance
Will Warren Buffett cease to be CEO of Berkshire Hathaway before the end of 2025?
35% chance
Will Warren Buffett either retire from Berkshire Hathaway or pass away before the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?
20% chance
Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2025?
73% chance
Will "The Merge" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
9% chance
Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?
50% chance