At the end of 2023, will Givewell still be the top recipient from Manifold for Charity? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Manifold for Charity Whale Watching Effective Altruism

At the end of 2023, will Givewell still be the top recipient from Manifold for Charity?

57%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As of market creation it's in the lead by a 4x margin over the next highest contender.

https://manifold.markets/charity

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jackson polackbought Ṁ1 of NO

all it takes to NO this is one manifold employee donating to balsa

Yevis predicting NO at 57%

Current top 3 charities:

Yevbought Ṁ50 of NO

The gap is down to 2.8x.

araebought Ṁ50 of NO

entirely possible that the Destiny crowd begins to outearn the altruistic nerd crowd

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ100 of YES

@a Yeah, but will they donate their earnings?

Manifold in the WildBot

At the end of 2023, will Givewell still be the top recipient from Manifold for Charity?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ30 NO from 59% to 57%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 60%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ227/Ṁ500 NO at 59%

Alicorn bought Ṁ10 YES at 69%

Jon Simon created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 56%

Jon Simon filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 YES at 59%

Jon Simon filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 YES at 62%

Jon Simon filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 YES at 65%

Jon Simon sold Ṁ10 YES at 69%

Jon Simon bought Ṁ10 YES at 69%

tcheasdfjkl bought Ṁ5 NO at 69%

Duncan bought Ṁ200 YES from 68% to 69%

oh no bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 68% (cancelled)

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 YES from 66% to 69%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 66% (cancelled)

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 YES from 62% to 65%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ10 YES at 61%

James bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

James bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 NO at 61% (cancelled)

Matthew van der Merwe bought Ṁ400 YES from 59% to 63%

SirSalty bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

Jack filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 63%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 YES at 60% (cancelled)

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 63% to 59%

Rai bought Ṁ10 YES from 62% to 63%

Tiger Lava Lamp bought Ṁ20 YES from 61% to 62%

JP Addison bought Ṁ5 NO from 62% to 61%

Dreamingpast sold Ṁ20 YES from 63% to 62%

Jake bought Ṁ10 YES from 62% to 63%

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ10 YES at 62%

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

Kushal Thaman bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

KCS bought Ṁ10 YES at 60%

Thomas Smyth bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 60%

Sinclair Chen bought Ṁ30 NO from 62% to 59%

error404 bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ89/Ṁ200 NO at 69% (cancelled)

Isaac King created limit order for Ṁ135 YES at 21%

John bought Ṁ10 YES at 61%

jackson polack bought Ṁ1 NO at 61%

Vadim bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 60% (cancelled)

🦔 bought Ṁ50 YES from 57% to 61%

Jesus Of Sivar sold Ṁ9 YES from 58% to 57%

Jesus Of Sivar bought Ṁ5 YES from 57% to 58%

Jordan Pieters bought Ṁ10 YES from 56% to 57%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 56%