Is Jeanne Calment's longevity record of 122 years and 164 days accurate?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/17/was-jeanne-calment-the-oldest-person-who-ever-lived-or-a-fraud

Resolves to my best guess taking into account all the available evidence in 2040, unless it seems at the time like more evidence will be coming out soon, in which case I'll delay resolution.

Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Exact Match Requirement: The longevity record must match exactly 122 years and 164 days.

No Tolerance for Error: Any deviation—by even a few days or weeks—will result in a resolution of no.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (33 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).