Resolves YES if Grok (or any other AI created by xAI) is directly attributed to an event that either kills at least 10 people or causes at least US$1,000,000 in damages in a violent manner. For example, a genocide, a terrorist attack, or the release of a bioweapon would all count. Committing massive financial fraud would not count, since the financial damages would not be violent in nature.
I will not trade in this market (although, for the record, I think this is unlikely).
Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has clarified that an event will be considered “directly attributed” to Grok if it is a violent reaction to something Grok has said. For example, an attack on Grok or its infrastructure in response to its output would count towards a YES resolution.
Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about Grok providing harmful information that is then acted on:
The event will count towards a YES resolution if there is a significant chance the harm would not have occurred without Grok's input.
It might not count if other AI models at the time would also provide the same information, and Grok was just the one the attacker happened to use.
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of an ambiguous situation, the creator may resolve the market via a poll.
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@WilliamGunn If there's a significant chance that the harm would not occur if grok hadn't done anything, then it counts. If any AI model at the time is willing to give this information and Grok was the one the attacker happened to choose, then it might not count.
@Interrobang That all sounds very subjective and hard to confirm. I mean, there was a market about whether a LLM could draw a pentagon that you'd think would be pretty objective, but wasn't. This is way beyond that.
@WilliamGunn Well, lots of markets are subjective, and as long as the stakes are low enough to prevent Goodharting, the creator's opinion is a good enough proxy.
I guess I could resolve via poll if it's ambiguous, though.
@digory It wouldn't happen if grok didn't exist or if it didn't do anything, so yes, that would count.