Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2022?
Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2022?
24
470Ṁ6713resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if confirmed that Lex Fridman created a market on Manifold by end of the year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ105 | |
| 2 | Ṁ31 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will any Manifold founder go on the Lex Fridman podcast before 2026?
25% chance
Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
8% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
35% chance
Will any Manifold founder or FTE be on Lex Fridman podcast by 2030?
28% chance
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
18% chance
Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will Noah Smith create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
40% chance
Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
14% chance