Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defence before 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

There are a lot of posts about the system and claims that it will be deployed soon or even sooner. But no evidence of operation presented so far.

The market resolves YES on a successful interception documented, not just announced.

Although even an isolated deployment would suffice.

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bought Ṁ750 of YES

[Removed; I posted the same news that someone did before and was decided did not meet the burden of proof]

bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1726675821056938043
the system has been deployed and successfully intercepted a launch

predicted YES

@CarmelHadar Hillel again

bought Ṁ33 of YES
predicted YES

@BenAdams refers to the same tweet, no new information

reported Hillel Hallel, an army and defense correspondent for Israeli commercial television Channel 14, on X

predicted NO

@ICRainbow Really embarrasing how the media just spreads misinformation without checking. Hillel himself said it was not Iron Beam some 30 minutes after

bought Ṁ0 of NO

This is crazy, I didn't even know we have that! And the physics of focusing a laser beam 10km from the source are quite complicated. Impressive.

bought Ṁ400 of YES

משרד הביטחון אישר היום (חמישי) כי מערכת ההגנה האווירית "מגן אור" נכנסה לפעילות מבצעית במלחמת "חרבות ברזל"

My translation: The ministry of defense confirmed today (Thursday) that the aerial defense system "Light Shield" [That's the new name for Iron Beam] has become operative in the "Iron Swords" war.

"מגן אור", שנפרסה בדרום הארץ...

"Light Shield", which was deployed in the south of the country...

@ICRainbow Can this resolve? The article clearly states it was deployed.

predicted YES

@Shump yeah, looks like it. I want one more confirmation though. Should be coming any time soon now.

predicted NO

@ICRainbow I want to apologize, this source does not appear to be reliable. It seems that they've copied the information from a different, more reliable Israeli news source, but instead of writing things in future tense, like the original, they wrote it as if it already happened. I was initially confused by that.

We still need to wait for a source saying the system actually got deployed.

bought Ṁ400 of YES

Probably not

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