Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Mark Carney remains Prime Minister of Canada after the April 28, 2025 federal election. This requires that he either:

1. Leads the Liberal Party to a majority government (172+ seats)

2. Forms a minority government as leader of the Liberal Party

3. Maintains his position as Prime Minister through a coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement with other parties

The market resolves NO if Carney ceases to be Prime Minister after the election results are finalized, whether due to resignation, his party failing to form government, or another party leader becoming Prime Minister.

Background

Mark Carney became Prime Minister of Canada on March 14, 2025, after winning the Liberal Party leadership. Shortly after taking office, he called a snap federal election for April 28, 2025.

Current polling shows the Liberals in a statistical tie with the Conservative Party, suggesting a competitive race. To form a majority government, a party needs to win at least 172 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons.

Considerations

If the election results in a hung parliament (no party winning a majority), the outcome may depend on post-election negotiations between parties, which could take days or weeks to resolve.