Will Mana Sales Fall 50% in March, now that there is no Sweepstakes?
19
1kṀ16k
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
YES

Manifold sold about $6,000 worth of Mana in February 2025. Now with the ending of sweepstakes, sales may plummet, or maybe sweepstakes didn't make a difference.

Will resolve No, if Mana sales are >$3,000 in March 2025. Yes if Mana sales are <$3,000.

Data from the sales on this page will be used: https://manifold.markets/stats

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We're halfway through March, and the total mana sales so far this month are:

Mar 2 - $30
Mar 3 - $110
Mar 4 - $5
Mar 14 - $110
Total: $255

So it's on track to drop by 95%, not just 50%.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 it's interesting, Mana sales were higher pre sweepstakes. It must have been due to the election or some other events that isn't happening now.

@HillaryClinton perhaps due to prize points and before that charity donation? For now for the first time mana is almost completely divorced from value besides that of info from created markets

@TheAllMemeingEye Good point!

Unfortunately, the most popular markets here all have real money counterparts elsewhere. I don't see an incentive to buy Mana.

@HillaryClinton obscure niche and personal markets:

Allow us to introduce ourselves

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 98% order

@TheAllMemeingEye Hello!

@traders upgraded liquidity

bought Ṁ50 NO

@HillaryClinton Saddam Hussein

opened a Ṁ30 NO at 31% order

I would imagine the people interested in sweeps were buying Sweepcash and not mana.

@GleamingRhino They were bundled. You bought both at the same time.

sold Ṁ18 NO

@HillaryClinton I forgot that’s how it worked. Oops

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