Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the United States Senate confirms a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States. The confirmation must be officially recorded in the Congressional Record or an equivalent authoritative source. If no such confirmation occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background:
As of May 6, 2025, the composition of the U.S. Supreme Court is as follows:
Chief Justice John Roberts: Appointed in 2005, currently 70 years old.
Justice Clarence Thomas: Appointed in 1991, currently 76 years old.
Justice Samuel Alito: Appointed in 2006, currently 74 years old.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor: Appointed in 2009, currently 70 years old.
Justice Elena Kagan: Appointed in 2010, currently 64 years old.
Justice Neil Gorsuch: Appointed in 2017, currently 56 years old.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh: Appointed in 2018, currently 59 years old.
Justice Amy Coney Barrett: Appointed in 2020, currently 52 years old.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson: Appointed in 2022, currently 53 years old.
Speculation about potential retirements has been ongoing, particularly concerning the Court's older members. Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito, both appointed by Republican presidents, have been subjects of retirement discussions. Some analysts suggest that if President Donald Trump, who began his second term in January 2025, remains in office, these justices might consider retirement to allow for the appointment of younger conservative successors. (news.northeastern.edu)
Conversely, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, appointed by a Democratic president, has faced calls from some liberal circles to retire strategically, especially given her age and health considerations. However, she has not publicly indicated any intention to step down. (washingtonpost.com)
As of now, no official announcements regarding retirements or new nominations have been made. The confirmation of a Supreme Court justice in 2025 is contingent upon a vacancy arising and the subsequent nomination and confirmation process proceeding within the year.
1,000