Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, between June 15, 2026, and January 20, 2029 (inclusive), the United States Senate votes to confirm at least one nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Date Range: The official Senate confirmation vote must take place on or after June 15, 2026, and on or before 11:59:59 AM ET on January 20, 2029.

• Definition of Confirmation: A nominee is considered "confirmed" when the U.S. Senate passes a vote to advise and consent to the nomination. Actual swearing-in, taking the judicial oath, or officially assuming office is not required for a "YES" resolution, provided the Senate confirmation vote is successful within the specified timeframe.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official government records from the U.S. Senate Nominations Page and Congress.gov.

Background

The U.S. Supreme Court consists of nine justices who serve lifetime appointments. Vacancies arise due to death, retirement, resignation, or impeachment. When a vacancy occurs, the President nominates a successor, whose nomination must be confirmed by a simple majority vote in the Senate.

As of June 2026, there are no active vacancies on the Supreme Court, though public and media speculation frequently surrounds the potential retirement of its oldest members during the remainder of the current presidential and congressional terms leading up to the January 20, 2029 inauguration.

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