What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 2) | Manifold

What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 2)

4

1kṀ397

2027

64%

<1.0%

30%

1.0%-2.0%

5%

2.0%-3.0%

2%

>3.0%

Mannifold suffers from a problem that long term bets are not profitable due to the time of payout. To try to combat that, they recently implemented a loan feature that allows 1.5% loaned per day, on all positions on collateral.

I want to test if that loan feature is working. If it's working, Mannifold should have a very low discount rate, as this is free money.

Will resolve per data taken from the below market, using an average of data taken from 6/30/25, 12/31/25, 6/30/26, which I will annualize (per year interest rate). Adjustments will be made accordingly for figures maxing out at 99%.

https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/what-is-the-discount-rate-on-manifo-hC5yItnNgS

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@traders upgraded to plus liquidity

How does your analysis change if a significant fraction of people sell their profitable long-term positions well-prior to market close?

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 30% order

@WilliamGunn Then that indicates the discount rate is higher if people are selling vs waiting for the guaranteed payout later.

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Related questions

What is the discount rate on Manifold's Mana? (Part 1)

What is the current total amount of mana on Manifold?

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2025-12-31?

When will Manifold run out of money?

How much mana will Manifold sell in 2024?

Will the per-capita mana supply on Manifold decrease in any month before the end of 2025?

What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?

If Manifold continues to allow mana to be sent to charity or redeemed for other objects of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

Will someone solve the Riemann hypothesis to get a few mana on Manifold?

If Manifold removes the option to send mana to charity or redeem it for anything else of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

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