Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
6
350Ṁ7932029
72%
CDU/CSU + SPD
10%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens
2%
CDU/CSU + Greens
2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
1.9%
SPD + Greens + Left
1.9%
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
1.6%
1.6%
SPD + Greens
1.3%
No coalition before 2030
1.3%
SPD + Greens + FDP
1.3%
CDU/CSU + FDP
1.3%
CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP
1.3%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens + FDP
1.3%
AfD alone
This market pertains to the next German federal election, not the one that just occurred.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition that forms following the next German federal election.
The listed order of parties does not matter, so "CDU/CSU + SPD" is equivalent to "SPD + CDU/CSU".
"CDU/CSU" refers to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) collectively. If one of these parties forms a coalition without the other, the market will resolve to the option explicitly listing "CDU" or "CSU" as part of the coalition.
If no federal election occurs by 2030, or an election is held but no coalition is formed before then, this market will resolve to "No coalition before 2030".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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