This market is somewhat a continuation of my Israel-Palestine market, where I encouraged people to bring me new arguments. This time the market resolves to exact % number at the closure.
This time market does not start at 50%, since I am already familiar to the topic.
My current feeling is 93%. I followed Rus-Ukr war closely at the start of it, but stopped after 3 months. I occasionally read news from Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland about their new defence lines and bunkers renovations and other decisions. I also familiarise myself monthly with Russian both state and opposition stances on the war topic.
Today I saw that Russia has switched to continuous enrollment. In my opinion that is the main step in boiling frog strategy, so my expectation went from 80% to 93%.
In this market I might dynamically report my delta after reading some insightfull comments.
Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump grabbing Greenland would increase the creator's confidence in "Rus-Eur war in 10 years"
1,000Russia sees the world through "we versus west" prism. Trump clearly does not want to be associated with europe, which makes the concept of "west" (in the russian narrativr) collapse to just europe (easier target).
But i have checked stock markets and european military companies (at least those i checked) stopped growing (continued growth would be expected if the conflict was close).
Also, i have not considered black swan events like prigozhin's disobedience. I think similar things are likely to happen again in russia.
Poland has introduced a law to build bunkers in all new residential buildings.
I keep the 93% so far.