This market is somewhat a continuation of my Israel-Palestine market, where I encouraged people to bring me new arguments. This time the market resolves to exact % number at the closure.

This time market does not start at 50%, since I am already familiar to the topic.

My current feeling is 93%. I followed Rus-Ukr war closely at the start of it, but stopped after 3 months. I occasionally read news from Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland about their new defence lines and bunkers renovations and other decisions. I also familiarise myself monthly with Russian both state and opposition stances on the war topic.

Today I saw that Russia has switched to continuous enrollment. In my opinion that is the main step in boiling frog strategy, so my expectation went from 80% to 93%.

In this market I might dynamically report my delta after reading some insightfull comments.