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Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet]
62
Ṁ1kṀ6.5k
Mar 20
41%
chance

If bet resolves publicly, this question resolves like the bet.

If the bet does not resolve publicly, I will listen to both sides and make my best effort at resolving justly.

I will not trade in this market.

  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve the market with Max Tegmark losing the bet (i.e., resolving No — there are NOT fewer US programming jobs), pending any objections.

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@HenriThunberg any update on this?

@prismatic I'm willing to resolve to Max losing, unless there are objections

https://x.com/i/status/2038943694485696986

bought Ṁ5 NO

https://xcancel.com/MTabarrok/status/1901642461237199104#m

@HenriThunberg What roles are counted as programming jobs? I'm curious about new roles like Prompt Engineer and where this fits. Or is it SWE and Programmers only?

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

bought Ṁ20 YES

https://www.adpresearch.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-software-developer/ According to this the trend has been downwards since 2020.

The rise—and fall—of the software developer - ADP Research
Since the rise of the internet, software developers have commanded big salaries and valuable perks. But something has shifted since the pandemic.

@DarklyMade That only looks at US jobs. It could be explained by a shift to outsourcing to cheaper overseas locations after the pandemic made everyone remote anyway and it worked fine.

@SergeyDavidoff This is not wrong but the question asks about US programming jobs

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