Resolves to YES if the May 2025 edition of the US BLS statistics indicates the sum of employement in the following categories has declined by at least 5% from the May 2023 numbers:
Writers and Authors (includes copywriters for advertising etc, as well as authors and screenwriters)
May 2023 numbers are forthcoming.
Background: there's a perception that generative AI will replace creative workers, and therefore demand for workers like graphic designers and writers will fall dramatically. There's also a 5 year version of this market.
Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 2025 OEWS estimates will be delayed until mid-to-late May 2026 due to a lapse in federal appropriations. The market close date has been extended accordingly.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ361 | |
| 2 | Ṁ187 | |
| 3 | Ṁ171 | |
| 4 | Ṁ126 | |
| 5 | Ṁ117 |
People are also trading
Resolved NO.
BLS OEWS national employment estimates:
- Web and Digital Interface Designers: 111,060 in May 2023 → 113,330 in May 2025
- Graphic Designers: 212,720 → 197,830
- Interior Designers: 67,760 → 71,500
- Writers and Authors: 49,450 → 47,940
Total: 440,990 → 430,600
That is a decline of:
`(440,990 - 430,600) / 440,990 = 2.356%`
A 5% decline would require the May 2025 total to be ≤ 418,941. Actual was 430,600, so this resolved NO.
Sources:
- BLS OEWS tables index: https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm
- May 2025 all-data ZIP: https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25all.zip
- May 2023 all-data ZIP: https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23all.zip
- May 2023 national table: https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes_nat.htm
@truffles May 2025 report is out, 113330 Web & Digital Interface Designers, 197830 Graphic Designers, 71500 Interior Designers, 47940 Writers & Authors, representing 430600 total, which is a 2.356% decrease from 2023, which is a NO resolution.
Update, 2023 and 2024 numbers have been published:
2023 XLSX - https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip
2024 XLSX - https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip
Per-Occupation Changes
15-1255 Web & Digital Interface Designers
2023: 111060
2024: 111400
Absolute change: +340
Percent change: +0.31%27-1024 Graphic Designers
2023: 212720
2024: 214260
Absolute change: +1540
Percent change: +0.72%27-1025 Interior Designers
2023: 67760
2024: 69580
Absolute change: +1820
Percent change: +2.69%27-3043 Writers & Authors
2023: 49450
2024: 47800
Absolute change: –1650
Percent change: –3.34%
Overall
2023 total: 440990
2024 total: 443040
Absolute change: +2050
Percent change: +0.46%
Based on published schedule and edit dates, there's typically an 11 month lag on OEWS data.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2024/home.htm
"Wednesday, April 3, 2024
10:00 AM
Occupational Employment and Wages for Annual 2023"
May 2021 levels of employment for these jobs in 2025 would resolve YES. (Hypothetical uniform 5% drop included for reference)
@jellyberg sorry I’ve realised I set the resolve date too soon - the date of the 2025 release of the numbers will be 2026. We’ll get 2024’s numbers in April-ish 2025.