Black Mirror Season 7 [Prop bets/Megamarket]

1kṀ2846

an hour ago

91%

All episodes released at once

88%

Average episode rating ≥7.0 on IMDB EOY 2025

82%

Somebody doubting whether another robot/human is a robot or human

70%

Average episode rating ≥7.5 on IMDB EOY 2025

65%

Something from the season nominated for an Emmy

39%

Something from the season wins an Emmy award

35%

Bonus episode outside of the original 6

24%

An episode is more than 5% frames from generative AI

18%

Aaron Paul plays a role

17%

The words "black" and "mirror" are spoken in the same sentence

Resolved

YES

Actor with Oscar nomination plays a role

I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I expect this market to not be high stakes, and might bet in it even though I will be the one ultimately resolving questions. Bet at your own risk, although I will of course try to be fair and objective. (Will indeed try to ask for good resolution criteria for answers submitted by others!)

See also this other market which more talks about the actual content of episodes, while I consider this market broader.

I expect to

Update 2025-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Resolution Criteria Update:
- Episode Drop Dates: Only consider resolution if the episode drop dates are not in Q3 or Q4.
- Paul Giamatti's Role: Resolve based on Paul Giamatti being an Oscar nominated actor playing a role.

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3 Comments

28 Holders

93 Trades

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reposted 1d

@traders opening this up for two last days of trading before release!

26d

@traders does anyone object if I already resolve episode drop dates not being Q3/Q4 + Paul Giamatti being Oscar nominated actor playing a role?

reposted 26d

Trailer is out, let's get some new interesting bets going!

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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