At EOY 2024, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok?
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324
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2025
83%
chance

US politicians are once again making moves to ban or force divestment on TikTok in. Will it succeed this time, and if so when?

Some other questions ask if TikTok will "be banned" or "forced to change ownership", which describes an earlier part of the process or seems vague. This question concerns the actual ownership, at the time of resolution.

Edit: As clarified in the comments, if the app is shut down/inactive/banned in the US/... but still owned by TikTok, and the company hasn't A) shut down or B) divested the app. In such cases, this question resolves YES.

Question might resolve YES early in case there's a fully finished transaction to another entity.

I will not trade in this market, in case resolution gets tricky.

See sister question with same criteria for EOY 2025:

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What if at EOY ByteDance still controls Tiktok but it is no longer available in the US? (or similar version)

@JoshuaWilkes hmm yeah you're right this seems like a decent probability event.

I think this bolded phrase in description gets to this: "This question concerns the actual ownership, at the time of resolution."

TikTok still running under ByteDance = YES

TikTok not running, owned by ByteDance = YES

I should probably change the name to "owned by" rather than "control"? Whatcha think? Seems like they're forfeiting some control if their hands are tied by law.