Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
Basic
12
239
2025
43%
chance

Top-100 universities are determined by the QS 2023 rankings: https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2023

“Technical AGI safety effort” can be demonstrated by either:

  • At least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the developer of the AI system and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.

    or

  • One blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new lab, institute, or center focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years under the leadership of a tenure-track faculty member (or equivalent as below).

Further details:

  • Papers or posts must credit a tenure-track faculty member (or someone of comparable status at institutions without a tenure system) as an author or as the leader of the effort.

  • The paper or post must discuss specific technical interventions to measure or address these risks or, if not, it must both be by a researcher who primarily does technical work related to AI and be clearly oriented toward an audience of technical researchers. Works that are primarily oriented toward questions of philosophy or policy don't count.

  • Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice to show an engagement with catastrophic risks in the sense above.

  • A "lab, institute, or center" need not have any official/legal status, as long as it is led by a faculty member who fits the definition above.

I will certify individual labs/efforts as meeting these criteria if asked (within at most a few weeks), and will resolve YES early if we accumulate 25 of these.

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Tracking the resolution criteria more regularly here: https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-at-least-15-top100-universitie

Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
9% chance. Top-100 universities are determined by the QS 2023 rankings: https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2023 “Technical AGI safety effort” can be demonstrated by either: At least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the developer of the AI system and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI. or One blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new lab, institute, or center focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years under the leadership of a tenure-track faculty member (or equivalent as below). Further details: Papers or posts must credit a tenure-track faculty member (or someone of comparable status at institutions without a tenure system) as an author or as the leader of the effort. The paper or post must discuss specific technical interventions to measure or address these risks or, if not, it must both be by a researcher who primarily does technical work related to AI and be clearly oriented toward an audience of technical researchers. Works that are primarily oriented toward questions of philosophy or policy don't count. Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice to show an engagement with catastrophic risks in the sense above. A "lab, institute, or center" need not have any official/legal status, as long as it is led by a faculty member who fits the definition above. I will certify individual labs/efforts as meeting these criteria if asked (within at most a few weeks), and will resolve YES early if we accumulate 25 of these. Show Less

The list of CAIS open letter signatories contains >100 faculty from >50 universities, including many of the top 100. That isn't sufficient for this to resolve yes, but it makes it easier to know which labs to look at. I'll try to do a pass through all of these to see if I can get to 15, but it might take me a month or two before I find time. If anyone wants to start compiling evidence, go for it.