According to the AI Futures Project "AI 2027", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027. This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do. It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do.
Evidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include:
- Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench).
- Any repeatable demonstration of such task
Source:
https://ai-2027.com/ → Scroll to January 2027 and hover on the Coding bar, which says AI will have a score of 2.1, indicating it has surpasses all living people.
Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of Role Replacement:
The resolution is now clarified to compare AI agents against professional developers in the context of full software engineering roles, not just individual competitive coding tasks.
Full Replacement Requirement: The market will resolve as Yes if an AI Agent can replace any human developer 100% in all their technical work (coding, designing architecture, monitoring systems, etc.).
Exemption: AI research–specific technical work is exempt from this requirement.
High Bar: This clarification establishes a high bar consistent with the AI 2027 document's claim that the AI agent will be better than any living human developer.
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