🏅 Top traders

Between Ukraine overconfidence, and 3 large misses, I really needed this xd

@HarrySeaton Have you decided what you will do with this market now that it is closed?

@SirCryptomind arae will resolve the market appropriately.

@a

@SirCryptomind It looks like the stock formula gives M$25 as the stock price when the probability is 5%, and the market didn't go below M$25 so this would resolve no.

@a Thank you!

Just fyi, I have lost access to the account that created this market and may be unable to resolve, having said that given current events in going too try to recover it so that I can resolve this market appropriately.

Is anyone able to use the formula for converting dollar value of stocks to old percentage, I'm illiterate with maths and do not understand what numbers should be plugged into the formula. As such I'm unsure what dollar value melina stock has to hit for a yes outcome.

@HarrySeaton Trustworthy users (moderators) can resolve it too, so there is no need to worry!

@HarrySeaton that may need to be what happens, I'm sure they would be able to do the conversion also.

@HarrySeaton this is the formu

La anyway, unless it has changed significantly? Either way I'm too useless at maths to know what this means

@HarrySeaton Just put the values in and copypaste it to WolframAlpha

It's more of a soft proof, but my limit order at 6% is still active (as you can see in my profile) so the stock never dropped to 5% or the limit order would have been either filled or cancelled.

@HarrySeaton I can resolve the market for you if you show me where the Melina stock is.

@a https://manifold.markets/memestiny/melina-stock-permanent?r=SGFycnlTZWF0b24

you gotta get the people with limits to cancel them, i think RSWats and Agh and yaboi69 are the big ones, they might need to use the api

@jacksonpolack iirc you can, at least could, cancel limits in stonks from the ui. Don't think I have any left so I can't verify

yep, you can!

edit: dumb

So have you decided what you're doing with the market yet? So far even without calculating it it's clear Melina stock wouldn't even be close to 5%, and it'll likely remain that way, but how are you going to resolve? Are you running on the assumption it'll probably be clear?

@Matto442 this sentiment aged like melk

@dgga No stock has gone that low

@Matto442 hence why I said sentiment, not statement. The statement may still be true but before this drama nobody would have expected it to even go below 50%.

Now if any big stock is gonna go that low, it is this one. We'll see once a) people cancel their limits (if they even want to?) b) the divorce review stream drops and that stock gets linked to chat 8000 times

@Matto442 I'm not sure I can resolve it, if I manage to recover the acc it will resolve yes or no appropriately, but as of yet I'm still not sure what dollar value would actually constitute a yes result.

Having said that even given current events I expect a no.

How is this going to resolve based on the new market conditions?

@Gen It's not gonna go there anyways. Don't worry about it.

@Gen im not sure what to do with this market now, i may have to resolve N/A, that just returns everyone's mana ya?

@HarrySeaton8da7 although im sure some people would be unhappy with that i cant say yes or no now really, im open to suggestions though.

@HarrySeaton8da7 There's a comment by an admin there on how to calculate it: https://manifold.markets/memestiny/dan-stock-permanent#3PA86RWsQdjcfnu4whDJ

If I got it right Melina's stock would have to drop to 25Ṁ. But yeah it's a bit confusing.

@Agh oh boy that looks like complicated maths, im a big dumb dumb with that shit, but im pretty sure you would have to reapply the formula to the melina stock as the stock price is considered, and that one was worked for dan stock. someone else can try work it out, if there is consensus i will let the market go ahead, no plans to close the market early whatsoever. if no consensus is reached by close date i will N/A the market otherwise i will resolve appropriately.

@HarrySeaton8da7 i would prefer if you don't cancel the market. But if you are going to do it, it would be better to cancel it now rather than at the very end. That would just create way more drama 🙃