Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 of BUY

Don't mess this up danny boy

So fun to trade pegged stocks

predicts SHORT

Remove that sell wall MR Clown face!

sold Ṁ108 of BUY

I would have though if I buy at 865 and sell at 1171 that is a 35% profit? No?

who's dan

predicts SHORT

destiny's friend

@JonathanRay Destiny's jewish handler

bought Ṁ300 of SHORT

Oof, not recovering from that...

Now stocks bump up in range as they get more unique traders. Would love feedback on what you think and/or other ideas! - stocks are back to being all within the same range.

predicts SHORT

@ian I really don't understand the changes that have been made, and in particular what sort of effect they'll have on my short shares. It would help a lot if someone could provide a clear explanation of the changes and if any further changes might be expected in the future.

The changes were implemented without any prior warning or explanation and has changed the entire nature of my holdings. At this point, I don't even know how to form a new strategy to recoup my loses because I don't fully understand how the new markets work and I can't be sure that they won't unexpectedly change again overnight.

predicts SHORT

by coincidence they just changed it again, all stocks have the same range now

predicts SHORT

@jacksonpolack is there a set range? I didn't think there was a maximum that the stock can hit anymore

predicts SHORT

@SneakyElbow The backend is still a 0-100 measure, if you bought a % before, that's still represented with the new display numbers. It really shouldn't make a difference other than changing the psychological levels (M1,000 favoured over the previous 80%) etc.

EDIT: I think, not 100% sure

predicts SHORT

@Gen but if there's no set maximum value, then the percentages don't translate. If this market is still working on a 0-100 measure, then what figure represents 100?

predicts SHORT

@SneakyElbow I believe it rolls through some kind of multiplier, e.g. 50% would be M50, then volume goes up a bunch and now 50% is M500.

I don't know for sure, but if I buy M10000 YES it says I will get 2.4 shares, and the price will be 1099 per share (M2200 total?). I haven't touched these markets since the change (I've had permanent markets hidden/blocked for ages anyway) but I am still pretty sure the backend reads a 0-100 and the front is all for show. Probably best to wait for an update from someone who has more info lol

predicts SHORT

@Gen Thank you. I really appreciate you trying to explain it to me :)

I'm sure the changes are reasonably simple but everyone I've talked to has seemed at least a little unsure of the details of how everything works. It'd be awesome if Manifold could release a brief explainer, just to provide some clarity.

The majority of my portfolio is tied up in Dan stocks and this other related market.


I recognise I'm probably a bit of an edge case when it comes to how big of an impact the changes may have.

@SneakyElbow Hey there! Sorry to make so many changes in a short amount of time, we're trying to make stocks more fun! The value of your shares actually haven't changed. It's just the number of them that may look different. @Austin developed this formula so that the stock prices have more fidelity when the underlying binary (0-100%) mechanism is near the top of its range.

predicts SHORT

@ian Thanks for clearing that up 😃

So, the only functional change is the removal of limit orders?

Will my existing limit orders (listed at a percentage, pre-change) still fill?

@Gen Right, just removed creating new limit orders, yours will still fill

sold Ṁ6 of SHORT

@ian have to admit, I still don't really understand but that's probably more to do with me being an idiot, than with your explanation. If I have a preset limit order at 75%, at what price would it fill?

@SneakyElbow max(log(0.75/0.25),0.75)*500 = 549!

predicts SHORT

@ian awesome 🙂 thank you for your help

predicts BUY

now that its a numbers market, can it go above 1 pr share?

@Egg We're working on increasing the range of popular stocks!

predicts BUY

@ian Its very good imo

@ian What is prioritized more in this aspect, popularity or liquidity?

@Geozach Popularity is used to increase the range of stock whereas the actual sentiment if the bettors determines where the market sits in that range. - not true anymore