Resolves YES is someone changes the physical world to win profits on manifold markets before 2035.
Threshold criteria:
someone must do something single-handedly that could swing the claim. The action must happen in the physical world rather than the digital world. The person must make money or mana off of it. The incident should be notable enough that it makes the news or lands in the courts. All data will be taken from reputable news sources or court.
For example: I have a market that resolves YES if there is a fight involving deadly weapons on the floor of congress. This resolves as YES if someone stabs another person in congress and says in court “I did it to win on manifold markets.”
Other example. This does not tip the scales to YES. I create a market that asks whether someone will visit me in reality and give me 5kg of salmon. Some stalker psycho visits me and gives me 5kg of salmon. This does not resolve as YES because it isn’t newsworthy. But if I sue him or press charges and he is convicted of stalking me for the purpose of winning manifold money, then this resolves as YES.
Digital stuff doesn’t count. If I create a market that asks whether manifold will install a screaming goat button and @Sinclair installs a screaming goat button after going very long YES in this claim, this doesn’t count because he moved bits and not matter to make the money.
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This does not resolve as YES because it isn’t newsworthy.
Does this resolve as YES if it makes the news precisely because it's so unusual for a prediction market to be involved? Much like the infamous "paid for a pizza with Bitcoin" incident, some things make the news not because they're especially notable for their own sake but because they're a novel incident. So, if a news source decides to run a "Salmon prediction spawns long-distance delivery" story because someone showed up at your door with 5kg of salmon, does this resolve YES?
@HarrisonLucas no, not clear. Digital world is not the same as legal world.
Winning in a court is one more example of not changing material/physical world, but being held IRL.
Being the decisive vote in passing a law is a huge significant non-physical change to the world (which will have physical consequences). Yet some governments use voting with electronics.
This market would need a lot of updates to cover all cases, or clearer definitions. Definitions by example are doomed to not explain edge cases.