Will Yann LeCun retain his role as chief AI scientist at Meta until January 1, 2026? Or will he be forced out of the role? Also resolves negatively if he resigns/retires or if his position is very clearly superseded (or demoted in significance), such as if a new Meta AI lead is announced while Yann just remains a figurehead.
His departure must occur before Jan 1, 2026.
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A bit torn on this and haven't spent much time thinking through it. Thoughts include:
- He's been there since late 2021, so base rates with Laplacian succession is not high.
- YLC seems incredibly closed-minded and arrogant, even just from casual interactions on the outside (calling your V-JEPA release "a step towards Yann LeCun's vision of..." seems weird, no?), so I'd have to imagine that if I were Zuck I'd probably not want someone like him running the AI division if it looks like we're falling behind and that person seems really poisonous for the lab culture...
- It might look embarrassing for Zuck if he has to remove YLC, but then again if they don't get their act together it'll look embarrassing either way I suppose...? We'll see what LLaMA 3 brings...!
- Given the Zuck push towards AGI he may not want to shake things up that much right now... I think the most likely times for removal/departure are towards the beginning or end of this question period (on a "likelihood per-month" basis, at least)—except I haven't heard any news about displeasure in the situation at Meta... IDK
Would like to know more about:
- How often do people get removed from these kinds of positions in other companies, especially when they're about to do big projects
- Does Zuck have a history of these kinds of firings
YLC seems incredibly closed-minded and arrogant, even just from casual interactions on the outside (calling your V-JEPA release "a step towards Yann LeCun's vision of..." seems weird, no?), so I'd have to imagine that if I were Zuck I'd probably not want someone like him running the AI division if it looks like we're falling behind and that person seems really poisonous for the lab culture
Even if that were true, what's your prior on arrogance impeding success? imo, many (possibly the majority) of highly successful people are perceived as arrogant. I don't think arrogance is a deal-breaker given Yann is considered a "godfather of AI" & previously responsible for a number of breakthroughs.
A shakeup would be more likely if they made some major blunder like Google did with Gemini. From my understanding, Meta AI is fairly well regarded among AI people & their stock has done super well over the past year. If it ain't broke.... 🤷♂️
@elf It’s one thing to be arrogant when you’re leading the field, but Meta clearly doesn’t seem to be in the lead. Moreover?, I feel like there’s a difference when you’re talking about a chief scientist in a lab where you probably need to be aggregating lots of techniques that work, not just validating the ego/beliefs of the chief scientist.
@elf Moreover, all of the “godfathers” seem past their prime, and it would be a bit surprising if they weren’t overtaken by newer scientists who are more in touch with modern models. IDK base rates on this, but it seems like the kind of field where it’s hard to stay at the forefront of the field through sheer experience and riding waves of past insights.
@HarrisonDurland I think you should feel free to trade in this market. Its resolution criterion is pretty objective.