Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026?
99
1kṀ29k
Jan 2
95%
chance

Will Yann LeCun retain his role as chief AI scientist at Meta until January 1, 2026? Or will he be forced out of the role? Also resolves negatively if he resigns/retires or if his position is very clearly superseded (or demoted in significance), such as if a new Meta AI lead is announced while Yann just remains a figurehead.

His departure must occur before Jan 1, 2026.

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opened a Ṁ4,000 YES at 95% order

His badge post on internal workplace says that his last day is January 2nd.

sold Ṁ17 NO

@Mochi 95%, based, takes notes

@Mochi Sources?

@hmdurlz Basically I saw his official badge post from my friend who works at Meta. I can send you a screenshot lol but I don’t want to sell out my friend by posting it here.

@hmdurlz lmk if you think this is sufficient to show he left in year 2026

Does a paycheck that ends on Dec 31 23:59 local time resolve yes or no?

bought Ṁ100 NO

This Polymarket would support a NO resolution: https://polymarket.com/event/will-yann-lecun-leave-meta-by-end-of-year.

@aleven different criteria, Polymarket resolves based on his official announcement regardless of his actual employment relationship with meta.

He already publishes paper without Meta affiliations

I'm pretty sure he's not the chief AI scientist anymore, provided he's departing at year end

I am a tad confused

recent podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quCKUH_S8cE

not sure he mentions anything though

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.ft.com/content/c586eb77-a16e-4363-ab0b-e877898b70de

"LeCun has told associates he will leave the Silicon Valley group in the coming months, according to people familiar with the conversations."

> coming months
sounds likely to be after EOY 2025

Mass layoffs at FAIR

@Dulaman don't trust them not to silently copy prediction markets if prediction markets exist and are available in its search btw

half the time they're like

them: market should be at 78%
me: huh that's what the market i took this question from is at, exactly

them: huh interesting my reasoning chain must have been really clever

me: you also picked up the market itself as a source

them: huh! would you look at that

@Bayesian are you implying the average manifold user operates differently?

bought Ṁ100 NO

LeCun now reports to Alexandr Wang as Meta reshuffles its top AI leadership https://share.google/4a70pcAGyknkXgA0b

@traders this resolves NO

"Position is very clearly superceded"

Yann is strong and stable

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