Will there be two-tier sentencing guidelines in effect in the UK at the end of 2025?
5
100Ṁ70
Dec 30
66%
chance

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/mar/28/sentencing-council-england-wales-rejects-calls-review-two-tier-justice-rules

The prime minister has signalled he is prepared to change the law to stop the introduction of “two-tier” sentencing guidelines, after an arm’s-length body resisted pressure to scrap them.

Keir Starmer said “all options are on the table” after the Sentencing Council for England and Wales refused to back down despite pressure from ministers.

The row concerns new guidance aimed at tackling bias and reducing reoffending, which puts more emphasis on the need for pre-sentence reports, which give details of the offender’s background, motives and personal life before sentencing.

Under the change, due to come into force on 1 April, magistrates and judges would be asked to consult the pre-sentence report before determining whether to imprison someone of an ethnic or religious minority, as well as young adults, abuse survivors and pregnant women.

Critics including Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said the guidelines amounted to discrimination against white men.

Resolution depends on the situation on 2025-12-32.

  • Update 2025-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:

    • Weakened Guidelines Exception: Even if the guidelines are weakened, the market resolves YES if the rules continue to demand discrimination based on any of the following:

    • Ethnicity

    • Faith

    • Culture

    • Socioeconomic status

    • Gender (with the exception of pregnant women)

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If the guidelines get weakened, I'd say it still resolves YES if they demand discrimination based on ethnicity, faith, culture, socioeconomic status or gender (exception: pregnant women).

I think all those points are quite rare internationally when talking about sentencing.

But if it stays at the 2023 status quo, it resolves as NO.

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