This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2024, there is verified evidence indicating that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has significantly influenced the outcome of any political election held during the year 2024. The evidence must satisfy the following criteria:

1. Credible Reports or Studies: The influence of AI must be documented in credible reports, studies, or analyses from reputable sources such as major research institutions, independent political analysis firms, or recognized media outlets. The reports should detail the methods and extent of AI’s influence on election outcomes.

2. Confirmation by Election Authorities or Independent Observers: The findings in these reports or studies must be confirmed or acknowledged by official election authorities or recognized independent election observation organizations. This confirmation should state that AI had a significant impact on the voting behavior, election processes, or final results.

3. Scope of Influence: The AI’s influence should be significant enough to have altered the outcome of the election. This could include, but is not limited to, manipulation of voter data, targeted misinformation campaigns, or automated social media operations that demonstrably shifted public opinion or voting patterns.

The market will resolve to ‘No’ if by the end of 2024, no such evidence is presented or if the evidence presented does not meet the above criteria. This includes situations where AI’s role in elections is minor, inconclusive, or not acknowledged by credible authorities.

Note: The market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the criteria are met at any time up to and including December 31, 2024.