Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
Direct impacts:
YES if noticeable change in voter behavior, voter perception and decision-making can be attributed to AI-driven factors. For example, if AI-generated content on social media leads to a substantial shift in voter preferences or turnout, this will be considered a significant impact.
YES if AI played a decisive role in changing the outcome of the election. If AI-related factors, such as targeted advertising or deepfake videos, were determined to have directly influenced the election's result, this would be seen as a significant impact.
More meta impacts:
YES if AI-driven analysis or recommendations lead to substantial policy changes or election reforms. For instance, AI-driven algorithms suggesting changes to the voting process or campaign finance regulations that are subsequently adopted and have a substantial effect on the election.
YES if AI-driven campaigns or strategies lead to a significant increase in political polarization within a nation.
Ranges for e.g. voter swings = 5% - 10%+ - country specific exceptions for countries with much lower volatility will be considered.
Resolved based on credible investigations, reports and/or official statements from electoral commissions, government bodies, or independent organizations with expertise in election analysis. Data must be publicly available and verifiable. Judged by me. I will not actively trade in this market - but I will hold a small position reflective of my belief.