Will the market "This market should resolve to YES in 2024, but I will not personally resolve it" resolve to YES in 1mo?
Manifold•Unranked
44
316
Ṁ530
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to:
YES if the reference market resolves to YES
NO if the reference market resolves to NO, N/A, to any probability, or does not resolve after one month of its closing date

Reference market:

Contrary to the reference market, for this market I will personally resolve it

For anyone wondering if these two markets are redundant, AFAIK the reference market can only resolve to YES or N/A so I imagine it is risk-free to bet YES on it (except in some weird case like a whale knowing it will not resolve to YES then bet a large amount on NO just for fun), hence it is reasonable to see high probabilities

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ105
2Ṁ98
3Ṁ40
4Ṁ32
5Ṁ26
6 Comments
38 Holders
76 Trades
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,500 of YES

@GustavoMafra Please resolve to YES

bought Ṁ750 of YES

Mod policy is certainly to resolve those when resolution is clear

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Changing the title just in case some people did not read or understand this part of the description

NO if the reference market resolves to NO, N/A, to any probability, or does not resolve after one month of its closing date

N/A undoes all of the trading on a market, returning the original funds that the traders paid (if I recall correctly)

Correct. If you wanted to return the current value of the position of each bettor, you could simply resolve PROB to the probability the market is currently at.

predicted NO

Yeah thanks, that doesn't change the spirit of the market or resolution criteria, the original market is still risk-free for YES bettors

Related in Manifold

See more Manifold questions

More related questions