Will the market "This market should resolve to YES in 2024, but I will not personally resolve it" resolve to YES in 1mo?

Basic

Ṁ33k

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market will resolve to:
YES if the reference market resolves to YES
NO if the reference market resolves to NO, N/A, to any probability, or does not resolve after one month of its closing date

Reference market:

Contrary to the reference market, for this market I will personally resolve it

For anyone wondering if these two markets are redundant, AFAIK the reference market can only resolve to YES or N/A so I imagine it is risk-free to bet YES on it (except in some weird case like a whale knowing it will not resolve to YES then bet a large amount on NO just for fun), hence it is reasonable to see high probabilities

#Manifold

#Unranked

Get

1,000

and

1.00

6 Comments

Sort by:

@GustavoMafra Please resolve to YES

Mod policy is certainly to resolve those when resolution is clear

Changing the title just in case some people did not read or understand this part of the description

NO if the reference market resolves to NO, N/A, to any probability, or does not resolve after one month of its closing date

N/A undoes all of the trading on a market, returning the original funds that the traders paid (if I recall correctly)

Correct. If you wanted to return the current value of the position of each bettor, you could simply resolve PROB to the probability the market is currently at.

predicted NO

Yeah thanks, that doesn't change the spirit of the market or resolution criteria, the original market is still risk-free for YES bettors

Related questions

Related questions