Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?
26
100
530
2040
30%
chance

The idea here is to understand if a considerable number of people trust AIs more than humans on making public decisions

Let's count any UN state, in any constituency, as long as the AI/algorithm wins with 10.000 or more votes. The AI can legally be elected as a person, but the campaign should refer to the AI or algorithm as the real candidate, and give the idea that decisions (written laws, votes) will be made the AI/algorithm. Public relations does not need to be made by the AI. Code does not need to be open source and may change during the term in office. There does not need to be any independent audit on whether the AI is really making decisions

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

10,000 is a lot of vote for most constituencies. Isn't a win sufficient regardless of the number of votes?

predicts YES

@SteveIrwin In Brazil at least you can elect a "Vereador" (a municipality-level representative) with 45 votes in some cases - you can elect somebody just with the votes of a big family or company. I imagine there may be even more extreme cases in other countries. Maybe I should have done 1,000 votes as the threshold here, but I think we need some least number of votes to make this market more meaningful in terms of what it wants to estimate (people's trust in AI vs humans)

bought Ṁ30 of YES

by 2040 it only has to happen once