What will happen in a scenario where he resolves in a way that’s clearly incorrect and mods need to step in? Will this market take the initial resolution or final resolution if it's changed?

@LiamZ agreed, very important clarification

@LiamZ It is meant to take the final resolution if it's changed; I imagine that it's fine for me to resolve as soon as he does, and then if mods change his resolution then they change mine as well; but I'd be okay to wait until the mods had time to intervene if his resolution is clearly incorrect.

Thanks. This does appear to be helpful.

I'm not sure why there is so much cynicism in response to the original prediction.

I understand I'm placing a wager that everyone else believes is unlikely and it does seem highly likely that this will resolve 'na' due to the communication barrier between getting @Aella to even be aware of the question and take it as genuine.

But in the spirit of prediction markets, I feel confident that if she did take me seriously, she would be pleasantly surprised. This at least provides me a place to wager against a definitive 'no' resolution.

Thanks again for the attention.

@Krantz >I'm not sure why there is so much cynicism in response to the original prediction.

What are your best guesses?

>communication barrier

You could contact her and schedule a "date" at any time, are you too poor to do so? I'd dump Ṁ into NO on the original market if it wasn't going to be a long bet waste of time resolving to NA (likely)

@MarySmith Yes, I'm poor. At least in the terms that the current economy understands that. I'd like to pay @Aella directly through a mechanism that rewards her for answering surveys about philosophy because I'm primarily interested in what her beliefs are. I want to pay her to map her priors so I can compare them to mine. That's what I want to do to all the curious people in the world. There is no current machine that does that well. I want to build one. I believe that will navigate humanity through AI well. I want her to be my partner. Please help. Thanks.

@Krantz She stated a clear preference against ever dating poors again on X awhile back. Another reason why if you had the gumption to figure out how to reach her I'd still dump into NO on the original market. If you want to compare priors with others one tool I've used is the slider on Roam Research. On shared graphs, you can compare different likert-esc ratings on different statements.

Yoink

I think this is a better setup for markets like that one:

1. People with expertise on what would happen if this is tested can leverage it by an order of magnitude.

2. People who think nothing ever happens can power that leverage by betting on an N/A resolution and be paid for it.

3. Aella gets to pick up a much greater bounty when she forces the test.