Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?
8
200Ṁ220Jul 1
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any genre, but fiction. Fictionalized life history/autobiography counts
Must be published after today
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will my novel be published (or be on track to be) by mid-2026?
30% chance
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
67% chance
Will Aella spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
3% chance
Will aella sell an officially branded and manufactured sex toy by the end of 2027?
21% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
32% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
67% chance
By 2028, will Aella announce she's in love with an AI boyfriend?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
64% chance
Elon & Aella meet by mid 2027
26% chance