Bryan Johnson was born in August 1977 and is 46 at the time of creation of the market.
Following an extended anti-aging routine and spending a lot on his health, Bryan hope to reduce as much as possible the effect of aging on his body.
1,000Calibration from the SSA 2023 period life table for US males, taking Johnson at 49: of the 91,565 alive at that age, 21% die between 50 and 70, 58% between 70 and 90, 21% between 90 and 110, and 2 in 91,565 reach 110. The market's 23 / 38 / 28 / 11 is therefore pricing a large shift of mass from the 70s and 80s into the 90s and beyond, plus an 11% chance of beating the verified male record of 116 (Jiroemon Kimura, 2013) by at least four years. Some of the shift is ordinary selection, since the richest 1% of US men live about 15 years longer at 40 than the poorest 1% (Chetty et al., JAMA 2016); the rest is a bet on the regimen, and no intervention has ever moved a mammal's survival curve by that much in a trial. The arithmetic for what trials can and cannot show, and in which species (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
