Will SBF spend at least one month in jail?
43
131
830
resolved Nov 4
Resolved
YES

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Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

Resolvable?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I bought some no. I expect it's very likely that he'll spend at least 1 month out of his life in prison, but I expect it'll be at least 3 years before that happens, and in the meantime there will probably be some piece of news that drops this down to like 70%. I'll sell then.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

Arb - it's lower than the market for SBF spending one year in jail https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-sbf-spend-at-least-one-year-in

bought Ṁ100 of YES

He's just been arrested in the Bahamas, seems pretty likely he'd at least spend a month there https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63953096

bought Ṁ35 of YES

This should close after Jan 2030, this is extremely misleading otherwise.

bought Ṁ3 of YES

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predicted YES
bought Ṁ40 of YES

Why was this trading below the year market? 🤔

Will SBF spend at least one month in jail?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition