Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2032? | Manifold

Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2032?

AI capabilities (short- and medium-term) [WIP]•Technical AI Timelines•Math•IMO Grand Challenge

47

429

Ṁ43K

Ṁ830

2032

75%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicts YES

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphageometry-an-olympiad-level-ai-system-for-geometry/

this is way too high

predicts NO

just checking: it is intentional that this is until the start of 2032, while all other IMO markets are until the end of the year they mention?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

bought Ṁ50 of YES

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