Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2030?
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2030?
20
1kṀ18172030
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@firstuserhere so by moores law gains alone you would expect 16 fold reduction, bring you down to 6 million. There are also chip architecture gains not just from adding transistor, training efficiency gains, finding ways to filter the training data to not waste compute on worthless low information examples. (For example trying to memorize hashes or public keys that happen to be in the training set).
Also if the gpt-4 source is similar to the gpt-3 source it's a tiny python program of a few thousand lines. Open source versions exist and over the next 7 years many innovations will be found that weren't available to OAI.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2028?
89% chance
Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
78% chance
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?
82% chance
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
83% chance
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
82% chance
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
16% chance
Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?
19% chance
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
14% chance
Will any nation's military budget be used to train an AI system that consistently beats GPT-4's SAT scores by 2026?
26% chance
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
33% chance