Are LLMs more important than the fax machine?
11
150Ṁ275
2030
87%
chance
Market context
AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
90% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
14% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
47% chance
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?
62% chance
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
57% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
91% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
77% chance
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
71% chance
Will these LLM + search companies still be in business in 2027? [Free response]
Sort by:

> be internet

> be >10% of gdp

> be where this discussion is occurring

> people still simp krugman saying it had no effect on economy. stopped growing in 1998. and the term “information economy” will sound silly

> mfw it doesn’t sound silly

There was no long-lived supercharging of GDP growth or TFP post-1995 – which is what some people were expecting back then – so Krugman was right. Is “a decade of above zero growth” going to be the yardstick used here too?

How will this be resolved?

People are also trading

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
90% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
14% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
47% chance
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?
62% chance
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
57% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
91% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
77% chance
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
71% chance
Will these LLM + search companies still be in business in 2027? [Free response]
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy