resolved Nov 3

Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried in absentia.

2026 version:

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ50,000 of YES

resolves yes

predicted NO

welp, hooray for justice.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

The trail is scheduled to finish this Thursday. Federal conviction rate is over 99%, so even from base rates this market should be much higher. Looking into the trail reporting, the prosecution seems to be winning.

@glassbottle The Federal conviction rate is over 99%?

That seems pretty nuts. Do you mean for all crimes or the conviction rate for some specific subset of cases?

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson I’m guessing that includes guilty pleas and is a percentage of proceedings (rather than individual charges).

sold Ṁ95 of YES

@NiallWeaver I think that’s the rate of cases that go to trial. (Narrator: it’s not). Overwhelmingly the prosecution wins.

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson everybody takes a plea in federal cases. Except if the government doesn't offer one because they have ironclad evidence and want to make an example of you.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Thanks. Interesting. Still pretty high. Most cases don’t go to trial; most of those that do end with guilty verdicts.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon 0.4 : 1.9 of those that go to trial so 17% acquittal rate

predicted YES

@NiallWeaver Yup. You’re right. I thought it was lower.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Given the strength of dirty money involved here, I think at the least we'll see a few more months of dirty tricks to delay the (hopefully) inevitable. Wouldn't be surprised if it were a few more years.

sold Ṁ70 of YES

@EliGaultney what do you mean?

predicted NO

@NicoDelon "your honor, my client needs a recess of 3 months to deal with a terrible foot fungus he's developed as a stress response to the cruel treatment prosecution inflicted on him while on the stand"

bought Ṁ10 YES at 76%
predicted NO

Resolves on conviction not sentencing?

predicted YES

@NicoDelon I would be upset if not, but good clarification

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung yeah that makes sense. conviction happens before sentencing, otherwise how could you sentence someone

predicted YES
sold Ṁ4,075 of NO

This was the dumbest set of trades ive ever been in. I can't believe I bought that much no

predicted NO

@MilfordHammerschmidt Why did you buy that much NO?

@NicoDelon i had virtually no understanding of how long these trials usually take. Just heard of the theranos one and indexed on that. I really don't know why I decided to spend so much; bought thousands of M$ worth of no from Nathan at 35% and just now sold it back to him at 59%

@MilfordHammerschmidt now watch as the market resolves no anyways

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@MilfordHammerschmidt It’s a tricky one because it looks like a really complex trial that could last months. At the same time the prosecution case looks nearly foolproof (mostly due to the cooperating guilty pleas), so it might wrap up quickly. I don’t know what the base rate is for trials extending well beyond their scheduled length.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon yes Shkreli was saying 100% it'll end soon...

i'll buy some no at 100%

predicted NO

@Ernie For all sorts of reasons I don’t trust Shkreli on much 😂 but maybe he’s right!

predicted YES

@NicoDelon yeah, me neither. He's the ultimate adversarial shill. Very hard to prove wrong and very adaptable... But something in me just doesn't believe. Still, he is going on the record quite a bit here. Maybe some of his claims can be made into markets?

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