resolves yes

welp, hooray for justice.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/sam-bankman-fried-found-guilty-on-all-seven-criminal-fraud-counts.html#:~:text=FTX%20Founder%20Sam%20Bankman%2DFried,2023%20in%20New%20York%20City.&text=A%20jury%20has%20found%20Sam,of%20115%20years%20in%20prison.

Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts

Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal trial wrapped up on Thursday, leaving the jury to decide the fate of the FTX founder.

The trail is scheduled to finish this Thursday. Federal conviction rate is over 99%, so even from base rates this market should be much higher. Looking into the trail reporting, the prosecution seems to be winning.

@glassbottle The Federal conviction rate is over 99%?

That seems pretty nuts. Do you mean for all crimes or the conviction rate for some specific subset of cases?

@SimonGrayson I’m guessing that includes guilty pleas and is a percentage of proceedings (rather than individual charges).

@NiallWeaver I think that’s the rate of cases that go to trial. (Narrator: it’s not). Overwhelmingly the prosecution wins.

@SimonGrayson everybody takes a plea in federal cases. Except if the government doesn't offer one because they have ironclad evidence and want to make an example of you.

@NicoDelon I don’t think so https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/14/fewer-than-1-of-defendants-in-federal-criminal-cases-were-acquitted-in-2022/

@NiallWeaver

Thanks. Interesting. Still pretty high. Most cases don’t go to trial; most of those that do end with guilty verdicts.

@NicoDelon 0.4 : 1.9 of those that go to trial so 17% acquittal rate

@NiallWeaver Yup. You’re right. I thought it was lower.

Given the strength of dirty money involved here, I think at the least we'll see a few more months of dirty tricks to delay the (hopefully) inevitable. Wouldn't be surprised if it were a few more years.

@EliGaultney what do you mean?

@NicoDelon "your honor, my client needs a recess of 3 months to deal with a terrible foot fungus he's developed as a stress response to the cruel treatment prosecution inflicted on him while on the stand"

Resolves on conviction not sentencing?

@NicoDelon I would be upset if not, but good clarification

@NathanpmYoung yeah that makes sense. conviction happens before sentencing, otherwise how could you sentence someone

@NicoDelon yes

This was the dumbest set of trades ive ever been in. I can't believe I bought that much no

@MilfordHammerschmidt Why did you buy that much NO?

@NicoDelon i had virtually no understanding of how long these trials usually take. Just heard of the theranos one and indexed on that. I really don't know why I decided to spend so much; bought thousands of M$ worth of no from Nathan at 35% and just now sold it back to him at 59%

@MilfordHammerschmidt now watch as the market resolves no anyways

@MilfordHammerschmidt It’s a tricky one because it looks like a really complex trial that could last months. At the same time the prosecution case looks nearly foolproof (mostly due to the cooperating guilty pleas), so it might wrap up quickly. I don’t know what the base rate is for trials extending well beyond their scheduled length.

@NicoDelon yes Shkreli was saying 100% it'll end soon...

i'll buy some no at 100%

@Ernie For all sorts of reasons I don’t trust Shkreli on much 😂 but maybe he’s right!

@NicoDelon yeah, me neither. He's the ultimate adversarial shill. Very hard to prove wrong and very adaptable... But something in me just doesn't believe. Still, he is going on the record quite a bit here. Maybe some of his claims can be made into markets?