Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026
114
166
1.8k
2025
8%
chance

Resolves as YES if Elon Musk is convicted of a felony in any country. The question resolves as YES if he pleads guilty or is found guilty.

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predicts YES

Felon musk

bought Ṁ35 of NO

What kind of crimes do YES-holders expect him to be convicted of?

predicts YES

@Paul Full disclosure -- I'm long YES, but I'd sell if the % got much higher than what it is right now.

If you follow #tslaq on Twitter for a week or two I think you'll see people mention several different plausible felonies. However, it's pretty rare for very rich people to get convicted of crimes, usually there are settlements and other face-saving measures before anything goes to trial.

predicts YES

Enron Musk is a criminal. It's only a matter of time until he falls from grace and they catch him slipping.

Elon Musk behind bars
predicts YES

@CalebMoore Also, the implied interest rate from this market is very low. It will take over 3 years to expire, and even if the odds are 0% this resolves to yes this would give us only a 6% yield per year on the market. Could easily get a much higher yield on other markets.

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