closes Dec 31, 2025
SBF convicted of a felony before 2026
90%
chance

Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried and found guilty in absentia.

Clarification: AFAICT, 'felony' is a term only used in the United States. If SBF is convicted of a crime outside of the USA, the crime will be deemed a felony if the equivalent crime is considered a felony in the USA.

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ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Pranav ⠕

@sullyj3 @parafactual https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20?referrer=pranav it’s a lot higher for a conviction before 2026

Adam avatar
Adambought Ṁ50 of NO

https://sambf.substack.com/p/ftx-pre-mortem-overview new sam post, likely hints at his intended defense.

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentinebought Ṁ2,000 of YES

Question is mostly whether or not he kills himself at this point.

nfd avatar
nfdis predicting YES at 95%

@DeanValentine or if he talked so much in his interview circuit that the jury mistries because too many die of old age before the trial's done, hah

mr22222222 avatar
mr22sold Ṁ4,571 of YES

SBF likely to be released into custody of his parents. That changes the calculus a bit.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Pour one out for all the people who said “I dunno crypto seems bad” then “Sam did nothing wrong but be ambitious”;

May your moral compass be updated accordingly

mr22222222 avatar
mr22bought Ṁ546 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ftx-fraud-guilty-pleas.html

Former Alameda research head Caroline Ellison and FTX executive Gary Wang have pleaded guilty to fraud and are cooperating with authorities.

SBF agrees to extradition to the United States, giving up the opportunity to spend years fighting extradition.

The cooperation of two lieutenants with detailed insider knowledge and the rapid extradition to the USA mean that the probability of a conviction before 2026 is very, very high.

The lieutenants can corroborate each other's testimony. Any part of the fraud that was not documented electronically (sometimes on a cryptographically-signed immutable public ledger!) might be explained when Wang and Ellison are cross-examined.

I think the Southern District of New York is playing a very strong hand here. When SDNY tells other FTX executives to come forth and cooperate now, I don't think it's a bluff.

Things are moving fast. Just piled my last M into YES. Any price less than 98% is silly at this point. Nothing short of a presidential pardon or an epic procedural fuckup by the SDNY attorneys will keep SBF out of prison.

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentineis predicting YES at 96%

@mr22222222 but he donated money to democrats!!!!

mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 92%

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/11/only-2-of-federal-criminal-defendants-go-to-trial-and-most-who-do-are-found-guilty/

90% of people charged with a federal crime plead guilty. 8% have their cases dismissed. 2% go to trial and very few people in that 2% are acquitted.

I don’t think the chance that SBF’s case will be dismissed are very high.

Piling into YES.

Preen avatar
Preenbought Ṁ100 of NO

@mr22222222 "8% have their cases dismissed"
But this makes you want to buy from 92% to 94%?

Preen avatar
Preenis predicting NO at 92%

@Preen actually I guess your point was your prior was already that SBFs chances of his case getting dismissed

mr22222222 avatar
mr22bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@Preen He’s in custody. He’s safe from harm. He did a “I’m guilty as fuck” press tour in every medium. He will be extradited. Evidence of crimes is on immutable crytographically signed ledgers.

Game over.

xylix avatar
Xylixis predicting YES at 93%
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 65%

Bought more YES because SBF just. Will. Not. Shut. Up. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/business/dealbook/sam-bankman-fried-dealbook-interview-transcript.html?searchResultPosition=2

If he keeps going on like this he might just turn himself in and plead guilty because of 'duty.'

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Not clear he understands the definition of intent or knowledge.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

“yes I commingled the accounts and committed massive fraud, but like I didn’t *INTeNd to do a crime thing”

PeterBerggren avatar
Peter Berggrenis predicting NO at 68%

Has no one noticed that his name is literally “Bank man freed?” This is not a coincidence because nothing is ever a coincidence.

mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 77%

https://www.ft.com/content/c236d6f9-da5a-4da7-8dc8-5cd450dfe39d

Holy shit. This makes Enron look like Berkshire Hathaway.

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzois predicting YES at 78%

This guy & his movement such a disaster, embarrassing!

kazoo avatar
Trent Yazzois predicting YES at 78%

@kazoo ea just full of crap

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 77%

@kazoo EA is not his movement, it's been around a lot longer than that. The ideas of using evidence and data to do more good in the world have nothing to do with cryptocurrency.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 77%

@jack a more accurate statement would be: "crypto just full of crap". That I think we'd all agree with

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 77%

@jack I wouldn’t say “a lot longer”, it’s been around about 15 years max, but you are absolutely right that it’s foundation is in consequentialist philosophy not crypto. We could argue about the merits of EA creator Peter Singer’s ideas, a lot of them are ridiculous in my opinion, but I imagine he is mortified by what has transpired this last couple weeks.

mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 72%

Sort of astonishing that this is trading at 72% after this article:

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy

SBF is acting in a spectacularly self-destructive and worrying way.

SBF, if you're reading this, please give your social media accounts & email to your lawyers and seek some help. Take some inspiration from these people:

https://twitter.com/samantar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Abagnale

They've done a lot of good for people after doing their time. You can't raise $8B in two weeks. Don't think that your life is worthless if you fail to do that. Do a Frank Abagnale.

https://bermudahospitals.bm/services-listing/mental-health/mid-atlantic-wellness-institute/

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 78%

@mr22222222 Macabre to say, but he is to be alive to be convicted. He could off himself, or one of his now many enemies could “Epstein” him to keep him from running his mouth any further.

MP avatar
MP

Do we have a SBF vindication market?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 79%

@MP You should create one so I can bet everything on NO. https://apple.news/AFUTpk5oESaKElagO0ElKow

MP avatar
MP

@BTE Done

Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzosold Ṁ222 of YES

After looking at those screenshots, I think there's a >5% chance of suicide when he doesn't raise $8B in two weeks

LeahLibresco avatar
Leah Librescobought Ṁ100 of YES
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 72%

@LeahLibresco The fact this guy is still talking is really astounding to me

Austin avatar
Austin

@LarsDoucet I respect him a lot for it, honestly!

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥

@LeahLibresco A true con man, you never give up the con.

ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nanis predicting YES at 80%

@Austin Stockholm syndrome? ;)

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolinis predicting YES at 78%

@LarsDoucet He claims he believed that was a private conversation (and despite how foolish it was for him to assume that, I have no reason to doubt it, considering that in that conversation he basically said he was an error theorist publicly claiming to believe in morality because it was useful for him to make that claim.)

SonataGreen avatar
Sonata Greenbought Ṁ10 of NO

I wouldn't be astonished if the trial got dragged out for a few years.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

“wouldn’t want to rush to any conclusions; let’s be loyal to sammm”

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

man makes Enron look like amateurs, see also the $250m Ftx (likely) paid to Alameda in 2021

While it wasn’t necessarily fraudulent back then, the slope has been so slippery for so long (orders of magnitude worse ethics than any other exchange has even be accused of, long before the fraud started)

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

If crypto is speed running financial history, and Sam was speed running ethics, perhaps many can profit from noticing that overconfident saviorism and careless selfishness end up being basically the same thing.

Golden mean more like modest good works, or realistic morality, more than …

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
o avatar
Orpheusbought Ṁ10 of YES

In the United States, where the felony/misdemeanor distinction is still widely applied, the federal government defines a felony as a crime punishable by death or imprisonment in excess of one year. If punishable by exactly one year or less, it is classified as a misdemeanor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony

MP avatar
MP

Related market

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Related:

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

Does anyone else think this market could have originally been intended as a tip off that something was going on?? It was created October 4 and there are definitely some FTX insiders on this site.

mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 86%

lol, can't confirm or deny involvement with FTX

follow the "money"

EgeErdil avatar
Ege Erdilbought Ṁ100 of YES

i'm not sure why this market is so low - it took bernie madoff only ~ 4 months to get convicted of 11 felony counts after the exposure of his ponzi scheme in december 2008

it should be trading much higher than 40%, even

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of NO

@EgeErdil Do people think ftx was an intentional fraud/ponzi the same way Madoff was though? I'm skeptical, I've been operating under the assumption that it was more of some really dumb choices and bad risk management, I don't know if some rules were broken but the core business model seems perfectly viable in principle, unlike Madoff?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@jack No FTX wasn't a Ponzi. It was fraud. Seems like it was an intentional fraud since at least April or May. Plus he lied pretty explicitly to the public for awhile. I don't think the business model is relevant to weather he committed fraud after the market turned on him. He was clearly taking deposits though for awhile knowingingly not segregating the funds like he was committed to do. So at the end it started looking more like a Ponzi, but it wasn't designed as such.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@jack If you look at the things they were doing to incentivize users to hold the FTT token they should have been big red flags that something strange was going on.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@jack This is a great thread breaking down what happened.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@EgeErdil There is bias on this site in SBFs favor because he is an investor via FTXFF.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Any staked coins could probably have been lent out to third parties, maybe been lent to Alameda, but everything else was clearly user property (title remains with customer, no right to transfer or use as its own).

He stole from customers to prop up his own insolvent trading firm—and has been engaging in dirty self-dealing for years, commingling assets between the two entities, and more; everyone knew about the latter, but no one quite expected him outright stealing custodial assets (or that Alameda was insolvent, versus getting underpriced capital from FTX, priority execution, listing priority, and every other unethical thing going on in mostly plain sight).

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ100 of YES

@jack Maybe more like Nick Leeson than Ponzi. Who was convicted and jailed.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 71%

Interesting, ok, I've mainly been going off Matt Levine who painted it like how banks operate (loaning out customer funds being the normal course of business). If they weren't allowed to do that then it becomes a very different story.

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine

@EgeErdil Bernie madoff plead guilty. If Sam does not the trial could potentially drag on for a long time.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingsold Ṁ118 of NO

Bill Hwang faces up to 380 years in prison for slightly dissembling about his balance sheet to trade with higher leverage

Covering shorts—lock him up for life basically:

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@Gigacasting Yeah, he is totally screwed.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngis predicting NO at 25%

Can this say "a felony in any country?" Also, does felony mean something different to crime?

GavrielK avatar
Gavrielsold Ṁ104 of NO

@NathanpmYoung Crime is a broader term but the distinction isn't super relevant here; a crime (at least the way the US breaks it down) can be a felony or a misdemeanor. Felonies are more serious than misdemeanors and given the scope of this event, if there is a criminal conviction it would be a conviction for a felony.

mr22222222 avatar
mr22is predicting YES at 58%

@NathanpmYoung If SBF is convicted of a crime in a country outside of the United States, it will be deemed a felony if the equivalent crime in the US is considered a felony.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting NO at 37%

Odds are going way up.

Nasty stuff if Binance wouldn’t touch it. Supposedly 6B negative equity, lent customer funds to his insolvent trading firm, fully gambled away and not just illiquid.

John Corzine avoided jail by playing dumb and political connections; SBF might be ~25% of the way there but there are a lot of countries in the world.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting NO at 37%
GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViiis predicting YES at 24%

sry this should be super high no? Idk why it shouldnt be really?

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ100 of YES

@GeorgeVii maybe the timeframe. but surely gensler et al will figure stuff out reasonably quickly in the aftermath

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ5 of YES

Another thing to consider; His lawyers will be fantastic given family connections etc

TylerJohnston avatar
Tyler Johnston

@GeorgeVii I'm not sure if having lawyer parents really offers you better legal connections than simply being a billionaire. I'm sure his lawyers will be talented either way.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@TylerJohnston I agree. As long as he has kept paying his insurance premiums he will be good on lawyers. Just like Elizabeth Holmes.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ100 of NO

“History teaches it is better to engage is lawful evil than chaotic good”

(the US entities are supposedly clean, the politicians are bought and paid for, he has his own personal lobbying arm—he might get a tiny negative comment from the regulators he owns, but will probably be fine, would take this <1% )

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ10 of YES

Fuck, am I really at >10% on this question!?

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViiis predicting YES at 8%

Still would guess he's still in the clear on this regard. But if it comes to light how degen he really is ... idk.
Can't decide if this should be higher or lower than yesterday 🤔
Perhaps lower cos ftx.com is probs dealt with now which might have been some part of the overall risk. But then maybe higher given the likelyhood of greater scrutiny than before.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Clearly no and yet—