Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Volodymyr Zelenskyy dies by December 31, 2026, for any reason. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP, etc.). The market resolves NO if Zelenskyy remains alive through the end of 2026.

Background

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine just over three years ago. The three-year war has killed an estimated one million people on both sides. Nearly half of civilian casualties in recent months have occurred far away from the frontlines, meaning no place in Ukraine is completely safe. Zelenskyy has remained in Kyiv throughout the war despite significant security risks, making public appearances and conducting government operations from the capital.

Considerations

As the sitting president of a nation at war, Zelenskyy faces elevated mortality risk from military action, assassination attempts, and accidents compared to peacetime leaders. However, he maintains security details and has survived nearly four years of active conflict. Peace negotiations are ongoing as of late 2025, which could reduce immediate security threats, though the trajectory and terms remain uncertain.