Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to hold the office of the President of Ukraine at any point prior to January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC.

• This market will resolve to NO if Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the active or acting President of Ukraine at January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC.

• "Ceasing to hold office" includes resignation, removal, replacement, impeachment, death, incapacitation, or the swearing-in/inauguration of a successor. A brief, temporary delegation of presidential powers (e.g., due to medical procedures) will not count as being "out" unless he permanently vacates the office.

• The primary source of truth for resolving this market will be the official website of the President of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/en), supplemented by credible international news agencies such as Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) and the Associated Press (https://www.apnews.com).

Background

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy assumed the presidency of Ukraine on May 20, 2019. Under normal circumstances, his five-year term would have concluded in May 2024, with elections scheduled for March 2024.

• Since the February 2022 full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has been under martial law. According to Article 19 of Ukraine’s law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law," conducting presidential, parliamentary, or local elections is legally prohibited during wartime.

• Under Article 108 of the Ukrainian Constitution, the incumbent president exercises power until a newly elected president assumes office. This means Zelenskyy remains the legitimate president of Ukraine until security conditions permit an election and a successor is sworn in. This market tracks whether he will vacate the office for any reason before 2027.

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