This is an incredibly misleading market. Russia's full-scale invasion started because Russia is on a violent imperial conquest to destroy Ukrainians and the Ukrainian nation. Yanukovych ran away in 2014 because he was a Russian puppet who refused to keep his election promises and then Russia launched a covert invasion, shooting down the MH17 passenger jet in the process. Don't rewrite history. Conspiracy theories and propaganda don't fly here.

@Lorelai "In 2014, Senator Chris Murphy bragged about the United States successfully overthrowing Ukraine's government:"
there's absolutely nothing misleading about it. if you want information, you should click the link. i cant speak on behalf of russia, but russia did not fire first. in the X link, you will see that Democrat Sen. Chris Murphy says himself in a 5 minute video:
""I think it was our role, including sanctions and threats of sanctions, that forced, in part, Yanukovych from office."

"We have not sat on the sidelines. We have been very much involved. Members of the Senate have been there. Members of the State Department have been on the Square."

"The Obama administration passed sanctions. The Senate was prepared to pass its own set of sanctions, and as I've said, I think that the clear position of the United States has, in part, been what has helped lead to this change in regime."

"If, ultimately, this is a peaceful transition to a new government in Ukraine, it will be the U.S. on the streets of Ukraine who will be seen as a great friend in helping make that transition happen."

"There is a U.S. interest here. We are in the middle of negotiating a new trade agreement with Europe. To my state, it's enormously important. We do 40% of our trade in Connecticut with Europe."

"If Ukraine is part of the EU and thus is part of this new trade agreement with the United States, that could result in billions of dollars in new economic opportunities for the U.S."

"So, we do have an economic interest in Ukraine being a part of the EU, and we shouldn't be shy about making that interest clear.""

and this is not the only piece of evidence we have.

benny johnson of all people had Michael Benz, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Communications and Information Policy, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs on a podcast, where he says democrats had essentially overthrown the ukrainian government, then banned the russian language which half of the people in ukraine spoke, to slowly incite the war that zelensky always had democrats fund

there's absolutely nothing misleading about this but for how much information you simply dont know. this is why you study history. Sen. Chris Murphy live in the flesh, confessing, is not a conspiracy theory or propaganda. you just have to do your research

@Geiger0NsQ You are overstretching the term "war". An actual, hot war started when putin ordered his troops to cross Ukraine border and seize the power in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. And I do hope most Americans know that. Banning a language (whatever that means), overthrowing their government etc - all of it aren't a just war cause. And even if we imagine it was, it is still putin who started that bloody war.

@Geiger0NsQ Yanukovych*chose* to run away to Russia. There is absolutely zero reason why Russia should have a say in Ukrainian affairs and there was zero excuse for Russia to slaughter thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian civilians. Even after all that, the Russian language isn't even banned lmao, you sound incredibly uninformed. Either that or you're a st petersburg basement troll.

Can you state clearly and concisely who you believe started the war, and how they did it?

@TheAllMemeingEye good question. the short answer: the obama administration and its friends

im getting my information directly from Michael Benz, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Communications and Information Policy, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs. word for word on a live show with Benny Johnson, Social Justice Warrior: 1:05:21 (/-48:26[Live]): "How did this war start, really? We are told "Russian Aggression, Russian Aggression, Russian Aggression", but you cant tell this story without talking about Obama Administration's coup, full on coup, of a democratically elected government in Ukraine that was basically torn between its Russian and Ukranian half, and we like to leave ourselves out of this story, but the fact is that Chris Murphy, the senator from Connecticut, who has been leading the charge to stop the shutdown of USAID, leading the charge to call Trump and Elon authoritarians, leading the charge to back-channel with Zelensky around shadow diplomacy to stop trump's foreign policy agenda, was the very guy on live television as the coup was going down, bragging that it was the U.S who orchestrated that coup to begin with. There's a great write-up from Kanekoa here, and the clip is great"

the video starts at a general point around a deleted tweet talking about how "the extremely well-connected Ukrainian freedom fighter who nearly assassinated Trump at his golf course in Palm Beach received a Presidential Medal of Freedom from Joe Biden". on a sidenote, ill refer you to Barack Obama speaking about the lack of parliamentary system/leadership for democrats in relation to the necessity of a leader/"Shadow Prime Minister", while the X link in the market description tells: "In 2014, Senator Chris Murphy bragged about the United States successfully overthrowing Ukraine's government:". this should reveal the point itself as a triangle of shadow government corruption

to cut to 1:01:48(/-51:58[Live]): "The fact is, Ukraine is something of "In The Business" of assassinations - folks remember about a year ago, Ukraine assassinated its own lead negotiator in the back-channel peace talks with Russia. This was a guy who was hailed as a hero in Ukraine, who served as a spy in Ukraine, he was a prominent banker, and this was reported by police: He basically suggested that these negotiations pivot toward peace - he was kidnapped, thrown in the back of a van by Ukrainian Intelligence, shot in the head, then dropped off a bridge. This has been openly reported by the New York Times and others, even voiced by the America Radio of Liberty."

https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-chief-confirms-march-death-of-ukrainian-negotiator-in-sbu-car/
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate, confirmed in an interview with the RFE/RL Ukrainian bureau that a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation Denys Kirieiev was killed in a Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) car in the early stages of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

According to media reports, Kirieiev was shot dead by the SBU officers in March as they were trying to detain him. The SBU had “strong evidence” he was leaking information to Russia.

“It's a fact that he was killed in that car by the operatives," Budanov said.

The intelligence chief believes Kirieiev, who served as an intelligence officer, "wasn’t a traitor."


https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-sbu-responsible-killing-banker-russian-intelligence/32235780.html
KYIV -- Ukrainian security agents were responsible for killing a Ukrainian banker who reportedly served as a crucial information conduit and negotiator with Russia in the run-up to last year's invasion, a top intelligence official said.

The comments, made by General Kyrylo Budanov in an interview with RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, add further to the mystery surrounding the killing of Denys Kiryeyev, who was reportedly honored for his work four months after his death.

Budanov, who heads Ukraine's military intelligence agency, said "he believes the facts" and that Kiryeyev, who was a full-time employee of the agency, was killed by the Security Service of Ukraine, widely known as the SBU. Budanov did not say how long Kiryeyev had worked for the agency.

The agents killed Kiryeyev in an SBU car as they "conducted an operation" against him, he said.

"It's a fact that he was killed in that car by these operatives," Budanov, whose agency is known as the GUR, said in a January 21 phone interview.

Asked specifically if SBU agents killed "a Ukrainian hero," he told RFE/RL: "This is absolutely true."



moving on: "Ukraine, according to the German police and the New York Times was also responsible for blowing up the Nordstream pipeline, but people have to remember, Ukrainian Intelligence is NATO Intelligence. The New York Times reported, that in 2014, just a day after the overthrow Yanukovych government by Victoria Newland, Chis Murphy, and the whole web of Obama Foreign Policy Blob Figures, and i think there's some great clips from Chris Murphy that openly brag about pulling off this coup, but New York Times published a something like 7,000 word article about how the very day after that coup, the CIA took full control over Ukrainian Intelligence"

you can find the information in this video by Benny Johnson: https://www.youtube.com/live/27iSyErjzcw?si=HqJ_TAG_QZnvbnF2&t=3212 who invited Michael Benz to speak on this personally - he spoke on the market's topic for an hour or so on Benny's show because democrats ran government censorship and media like CNN, BBC, MSNBC, etc, thus why the tweet is deleted

Michael Benz ultimately details the plethora of ways that democrats had schemed across years to make this happen while they also go over another deleted tweet, from Benz, where he says "Obama helped lead the US shadow diplomacy corps that pushed Europe's Orwellian new censorship law (the EU DSA) and Obama's NGO aim, the Obama Foundation added a focus on "combatting disinformation". This was to another user's deleted post, WesternLensman, saying: "Obama pines for a social media Ministry of Truth:
"We want diversity of opinion. We don't want diversity of facts...it will require some government regulatory constraints.

"There is a difference between these platforms letting all voices be heard, versus a business model that elevates the most hateful voices, or the most polarizing voices, or the most dangerous in the sense of inciting violence."

"And that I think is going to be a big challenge for all of us that we're going to have to undertake."

you can find the video and some info here:
"Obama wants to censor voices"
https://youtu.be/7xvO8gvgKRE?si=Cl-P3CQmmkchEpnY

https://twitchy.com/warren-squire/2025/06/19/obama-pines-for-a-social-media-ministry-of-truth-n2414500



JohnMcCloy is another user who's tweet was deleted .. in the past 2 days .. while he talks about the conversation in a podcast with Marc Maron, in which he says: "WOW..Did he say SHADOW?: "A lot of what I tried to project..our values, our thinking ABOUT AMERICA, my SUCCESSOR seemed to represent the opposite..not seemed, DID."

"One of the PROBLEMS with Americans political system is that we DON'T HAVE A PARLIMANET SYSTEM..When I leave office there is NO SHADOW PRIME MINISTER" -Barack Obama

He then says he "FOUND HIMSELF MORE DRAWN INTO REGULAR POLITICS THAN HE WANTED TO BE" which to me is him laying the groundwork to PRETEND he wasn't orchestrating many things behind the scenes even after he left.
Remember, for the first time essentially in history..we had a President MOVE LESS THAN A MILE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE..."

here's the video: https://youtu.be/Hb2rKGfIOrM?si=9k9P8rzMKQuJZbxS



now back to the main point
1:11:57: "I understand that [Chris Murphy] has to sit on the atlantic ocean and happen to have that trade interest there, but this is why you have this bifurcated, shadow, dual-track diplomacy where you have folks who will defy the federal government's negotiating posture, because they have their own self-licking ice cream cone to financially benefit from. So, you have to look at the United States in the aggregate: you have senators and congressman who are funded by the war industry, who focus in the energy industry, and who reap the windfall of pumping up Ukraine as a NATO state - we're pumping up Ukraine's indigenous gas supply, we saw this in the USAID funding of Burisma, and the control over the prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, and the ousting of him - we have another clip that might be useful to play of John Kerry talking about just how much was mobilized in the Obama administration to control the prosecutors in Ukraine: the President, the Vice President, the Head of the State Department, the U.S Ambassador, basically creating a whole surround sound to every diplomatic organ in order to control the criminal justice system of a country 10,000 miles away from Washington. But this is what's at stake here in Ukraine: you have trillions of dollars worth of resources, it requires hundreds of billions, maybe low trillions, to actually win the war there - it was a war WE PROVOKED by coup'ing a democratically elected government out of office - remember, the whole Crimea referendum only happened because the Crimean population did not respect the New Coup Government

Why did the Donbas break away and declare itself its own sovereign state before Russia rushed in to defend it from 15,000 people there who had been murdered by NATO forces there between 2020 and 2022? It was because they didn't respect the New Coup Government"

Running out of characters - here's google reinstating democrat censorship of free speech and an example of how far they would take it

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11877091/Convicted-rapist-fighting-deportation-allowed-stay-Britain-crime-judge-rules.html
https://judiciary.house.gov/media/in-the-news/google-reinstate-banned-youtube-accounts-censored-political-speech
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/youtube-banned-accounts-trump-misinformation.html

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@Geiger0NsQ even if we accept the (super controversial) idea that the US couped the previous government, didn't russia quite obviously and openly start the actual war part by invading with a huge force from all sides? starting a war because an ally got couped is still starting a war

Just to be clear - it resolves as YES if most Americans are confirmed to believe in a conspiracy theory?

@MaxA no

first of all, conspiracy theorist is a government made term so you dont think that you should question what the government does behind your back. the only people who dont know this likely never heard of china either, area 51, or 5th grade, but if you look into any "conspiracy theorist" what they do is think about why there is information that is not allowed to the public and what that means

second, you can click the link to learn more information, but since we hate reading, here's what you should know while there is a video of Democrat Sen. Chris Murphy admitting to the United States cooperation in overthrowing the Ukrainian government in the X link:

"In 2014, Senator Chris Murphy bragged about the United States successfully overthrowing Ukraine's government:"

""I think it was our role, including sanctions and threats of sanctions, that forced, in part, Yanukovych from office."

"We have not sat on the sidelines. We have been very much involved. Members of the Senate have been there. Members of the State Department have been on the Square."

"The Obama administration passed sanctions. The Senate was prepared to pass its own set of sanctions, and as I've said, I think that the clear position of the United States has, in part, been what has helped lead to this change in regime."

"If, ultimately, this is a peaceful transition to a new government in Ukraine, it will be the U.S. on the streets of Ukraine who will be seen as a great friend in helping make that transition happen."

"There is a U.S. interest here. We are in the middle of negotiating a new trade agreement with Europe. To my state, it's enormously important. We do 40% of our trade in Connecticut with Europe."

"If Ukraine is part of the EU and thus is part of this new trade agreement with the United States, that could result in billions of dollars in new economic opportunities for the U.S."

"So, we do have an economic interest in Ukraine being a part of the EU, and we shouldn't be shy about making that interest clear.""

third, i dont know if you know but the pentagon has already talked about UFOs. there were simply too many to keep lying about, as the technology is too hard to replicate and fake, like roswell. it was dismissed, but i heard it was real

@Geiger0NsQ I think answering a question about beliefs in a conspiracy theory by talking about other conspiracy theories as if they're true facts is not the best strategy.

And before dumping more of this "Chris Murphy this, Obama that" idiocy, please answer me a simple question:

Ти хоча би трохи українську знаєш? Ну или на кацапской можешь, на худой конец?

But I'll be happy to hear your opinion on moon landings or the curvature of the surface of our planet.

@MaxA unfortunately, I do not possess Ukrainian or Russian wisdom

i'm not trying to stretch the point. i'll keep it simple and say the term is itself ironic because it was made in defense of the idea that you should question authority. the only way to cut confusion is with transparency, and yet...:

Project Mockingbird - "One of the most vicious and downright insidious projects ever launched by the CIA was Project Mockingbird, a propaganda project that was implemented in the early1950s. It was a massive undertaking that saw as many as 3,000 CIA agents and collaborators attempt to gain some control over the free press, by feeding select groups and reporters information and using newspapers at home and abroad to filter the kind of information they got from the public. At it's height, the reports including writers from the New York Times, Newsweek and Time Magazine among it's ranks, and was said to have a significance influence on as many as 25 newspapers. The program had a major impact abroad as well, as it served a major function in helping to sway public opinion in the run-up to the eventual overthrowing of Guatemala's Leftist President. Operation Mockingbird continued to have a major effect on worldwide media in the 50s and it wasn't until the 60s that a series of reports by investigative journalists brought the program to light"

Project Marionette - "Like so much else brought to America by a bunch of Nazi scientists, the marionette mind control methods became a vast and far reaching program within the united states industrial military complex. this type of program appears to have been practiced and further developed in America under the ospices of the CIA. after world war 2, the CIA smuggled into the U.S German and Italian scientists who were developing the Monarch Program. The Monarch Program is also known as the Marionette Program. A marionette is a puppet - Nazi and German psychologists were working on making perfect human puppets. The end of all the hard work put in by German, Italian, American, and British researches was an almost fool-proof, impossible to detect, human, mind-controlled, slave"

Project Stargate - "Project Stargate is the only long-term PSI research program known to be funded by the U.S Government, specifically the department of defense and different intelligence agencies, such as the CIA. The project was to investigate claims of psychic phenomena with potential military and domestic applications, particularly Remote Viewing, the report ability to psychically "see" events, sights, or information from a great distance. Remote Viewing research began in 1972 at the Stanford Research Institute at Menlo Park. The effort initially focused on a few gifted individuals such as New York Artist, Ingo Swann. Individuals who appeared to show potential were trained and taught to use talents for psychic warfare. The minimum accuracy needed by the clients was said to be 65%, and proponents claimed that in the later stages of training effort, this accuracy level was often consistently exceeded. After some controversy involving some of these experiments and alleged security violations from uncleared civilian psychic working in sensitive compartmented information facilities, Major General Stubblebine was placed on retirement. His successor, as the INCO commander, was Major General Harry Soyster, who had a reputation as a much more conservative and conventional intelligence officer. M.G Soyster was not amendable to continuing paranormal experiments, and the obvious participation in Project Stargate ended during his tenure"

Project MK Ultra - "At the height of the Cold War, the CIA conducted covert, illegal, scientific research on human subjects, known as Project MK Ultra. The program subjected humans to experiments with drugs such as LSD, Hypnosis, and Radiological and Biological agents. In 1973, CIA Director Richard Helms ordered all documents from Project MK Ultra destroyed. Nevertheless, late the following year, the New York Times reported on illegal activities. In 1975, the Church Committee, headed by Senator Franklin Church, and a commission headed by Nelson Rockefeller investigated the project. They found that over more than 2 decades, the CIA spent over $20,000,000, enlisted the services of researchers at more than 30 universities, and conducted research on subjects without their knowledge. Some historians argue that the goal was to create a mind-control system by which the CIA could program people to conduct assassinations"

Project Sunshine - "Project Sunshine was part of an effort by the Atomic Energy Commission to determine the long-term effects of radiation exposure on the human gene pool. Specifically, it had become known that above-ground nuclear tests were damaging human genetics on a wide scale - the AEC wanted to know just how much was too much. The easiest way to do this was by examining the bones and teeth of those who had been exposed - literally stealing human remains with no notice given to, or consent sought from the family of the deceased. Later in the decade, pretty much the same data was gathered in a much more responsible manner, by collecting and examining hundred upon thousands of baby teeth, which one notably does not have to be dead to surrender"

conspiracy theorists exist because somebody asked: Why? ... to people who will not stop ... across another 24 projects i could pull up now ... at LEAST

of course, one can choose what they believe, but one cannot choose to know

@Geiger0NsQ so here's an idea: don't read so much bullshit, and you just might find some time to learn Ukrainian and then understand the truth coming directly from the source.

@MaxA perfect profile pic for this convo XD

@TheAllMemeingEye all of my life is like that.

Fucking middle age.

What is this market even about?

@Balasar its about the awareness of the people internationally and whether or not people are aware of how things unfolded from the beginning. simply, do you believe people at large are aware or unaware of the origin of the war?

@Geiger0NsQ, one problem is that the question says "Does America Know Who Started the Russia-Ukraine war?", but you said its about the awareness of "people internationally".

The second problem is that the question is not clearly stated and tied to objective resolution criteria. I recommend rephrasing the question in a way that can be objectively resolved.

For example, "Do 50% or more Americans believe that Russia started the Russia-Ukraine war?" In this case, you could resolve the market on the basis of a reliable poll (Gallup, YouGov etc.), or average of polls.

@dfish He's not from America, so that's why he said "internationally"

@Balasar fair enough. It might be technically correct, like saying "what do organisms think about...", but it is vague and does not provide clarity about the question and how the market is resolved.

It almost seems like the market creator is assessing our research abilities or media literacy. I cannot figure out what "the event" in the description refers to. From my perspective, this seems like the Daily Colin Flip market, but with more steps.

@dfish I strongly suspect the author is referring to the conspiracy theory that the US was involved in precipitating the 2014 Euromaidan protests.

Lol, you changed the market's name from "Did America Start The Russia-Ukraine war?" to "Does America Know Who Started the Russia-Ukraine war?", nt

@YesButNoButYesButNo based on evidence, the first question wasnt a proper vote. that was my fault, first time